Saturday, September 30, 2017

ONE MILLION, HUAT AH!

If I had a dollar for every view that I have on this blog, I'd have...


It took me 34 months to get my first 500,000 views.
From then, it took 16 months to get my next 500,000 views and hit the magic 1,000,000 number!

I'm pretty sure your number would be higher than this one here

It's been a really interesting journey since August 2013 and I think I've grown and learnt a lot as a financial blogger and, more importantly, as an investor.

From dabbling into unit trusts, I've grown and explored into many things like stock picking, index investing, bonds, P2P loans and yes, precious metals. I've made money in *almost* every single thing that I've done so far, but I do want to admit that the only time I lost money was when I was trying to "trade" the market, going short and using leverage during the early 2016 period. It was a painful trade, but it was not my widowmaker. I cut my losses, learnt some very important lessons about the market, and more importantly, about myself. In case anyone was wondering, those losses have since been recovered and I'm back into fat profits as far as my entire portfolio is concerned. Net worth is powering ahead very strongly, thanks to cryptos.


2017 has so far been a very big year of changes for me - financially. As regular readers would know, I've abandoned all traditional investing advice and I'm now balls deep into cryptos.

I don't want this piece to be all about cryptos, so I'll just stop right there.

I guess I'm going to lose a lot of readership now that I no longer cover the mainstream stuff anymore, but that's okay with me. If you hadn't realized by now, this blog is to fulfil my need to mentally dump what is going on in my mind so that I can organize my thoughts and move on. Do I blog for the readers? Sometimes with PSAs and interesting lobangs, but honestly, it's mostly for myself. I guess we've got a good win-win situation going on here, right?

As of now, my plan is to continue my main focus on cryptos, and of course to blog about other interesting stuff, especially local finance stuff (non-stocks related). I'll throw in all my cheapskate travelling too if I happen to do those kind of things (ala Korea 2017). Even if you guys don't enjoy reading it, I enjoy showing off how you don't need to spend a bomb to have an awesome holiday. It's not that I can't afford an expensive holiday. It's that I don't enjoy having such travel experiences. I also think it's important that people in my generation know that you don't need to blow 2-3k to have a nice holiday.

Anyway, I want to thank all of you readers out there for dropping by and reading my stuff. I know that MOST of you don't comment, which is fine. Just knowing that there are views coming from real people visiting and digesting my nonsense is a nice motivational boost for me to keep on blogging.

So what's my next milestone? I guess it'll be 2 million. 2 million what? Well, lets see which comes first - if my blog hits 2,000,000 views or if my portfolio hits $2,000,000, ahahaha!

May I never get bored of blogging and may you always enjoy reading the crap I post!

Friday, September 29, 2017

"Store" your Crypto On Exchanges? MMMMMMMMMMM



By Stelian's count, there have been 316,000 BTC stolen since Oct 2011 until Apr 2017.

How much is 316,000 BTC worth in today's price?

$1,802,337,600 SGD

$1.8 BILLLION sgd.

Is it worth it to pay $100 for a hardware wallet?

You tell me.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

PSA: Consumer Alert for Cryptos

I think a good place to start for people interested in cryptos is this page on MoneySense.

At first, I was slightly annoyed that it is in the same category of "Common Unregulated Schemes" such as Gold buy back programmes, land banking and forex trading software.

But on second thought, there are a SHIT TON of risks in cryptos.

Scams and frauds are a daily occurrence. Hacks happen all the time.

As much as I am balls deep invested in crypto, I want to make it explicitly clear that this is not an "investment" for "everyone". A lot of people have no clue what they are getting themselves into.

I put it at high odds that people will lose their money from getting scammed or hacked, rather than the value of their holdings go to zero.

In cryptos, "caveat emptor". That means, if you buy it, it's your problem. No recourse.

-------------------------------------- End of PSA --------------------------------------

Kk, there we go. PSA over.

BTC is back over $4000. ETH is back over $300. Are we back in bull mode?

With the amount of money pouring into the space and development progressing strong, I quite feel that the "crash" of September marked a nice significant low to flush out all the noobs. I am fully prepared for cryptos to continue to power upwards from here on out.

And if cryptos tank another 40% from here? Guess what, I'd still be okay too. 

All that China news? Who cares? Not me, for sure. The point of a decentralized crypto currency is that nobody should give a shit what any single person or authority says. The network is decided by its users, not observers. 

I am all bunkered down into my positions and I am ready for each and every positive news to punch my portfolio profits higher and higher.

Profits are extremely fat and healthy now. If I walk away now, I would be locking profits that not even being invested in the stock market for the next 10 years could give me. 

Normally I'd want to sell my winners and lock in my profits - I'm just conservative like that. But considering how immature this market is and how much more we have to go, I'm not even tempted to cash out anything back to SGD yet. We've got a long way more to go, and the end of the line for me is definitely much MUCH higher than where we are now.

Monday, September 25, 2017

"Ponzi" Scheme still profitable

My alleged investments into "ponzi" schemes have been working quite well lately.

Even with the massive market crash of Aug where everything dropped 40-50%, my portfolio is still holding onto gains very strongly.

Yes, this "ponzi" scheme has managed to sucker plenty of Fortune 500 companies to endorse its technology, including the noob likes of well known illegitimate scam companies such as BP, Microsoft, CME Group, Reuters, Intel, Deloitte, State Street and Samsung. Even many beloved banks seem to have been suckers into this "ponzi", such as Credit Suisse, ING, MUFG, JP Morgan, National Bank of Canada, Rabobank, Santandar and UBS.


The level of the scam is so high that even governments such as Japan and Korea have been conned to regard theses "ponzi" tokens as legal. Oh wait, Singapore and Switzerland too? And so many other countries too?!

Apparently even Kakao is going to list cryptos for the run-of-the-mill Korean to get suckered into making these "ponzi" investments also.

Oh dear lord, how have so many people been suckered by this massive ponzi scheme?

The scale of this "ponzi" is too big. This has got to stop!

Tell Trump. Build Wall. Need UN assistance. Sum1 plz halp. Call 999 kthx. 

/sarc

Sure, most of the companies are using private strains of the Eth blockchain. But this is just the ETH ecosystem, there are plenty of other cryptos that have partnerships, links and even actual adoption and usage by real world companies.

Governments and regulators are all taking heed of this because the size of the projected future of it is too big that it can no longer be ignored without them being viewed as completely incompetent.

Official stances have completely shelved the "is it a scam?" debate and the answer is a resounding no. Now the debate continues with "is it a currency? an asset? a security?" and most importantly "what next?".

I think many have realized the futility of trying to stop or ban something that was created with the special and specific trait to be ban-resistant.

Cryptos can never be banned and they cannot be stopped. It's not an easy job for people to figure out how to leverage on these technologies and how to integrate them into existing frameworks without contradicting existing rules.

Anyway, the biggest "ponzi" scheme in my opinion is the fiat system that we were all born and enslaved to. If crypto is a ponzi scheme, please tell me how that sweet sweet fiat / USD is holding up for you in terms of purchasing power?


All fiat have a terminal value of nothing. It's not my opinion. This is a historical fact.

(*insert smart alec comment* - Hey give me all your fiat then since you think it's worthless kek. 
Reply: It's mostly in cryptos already, sorry. I'll be happy to trade you my precious fiat for your worthless cryptos over on the exchanges)

I wonder what happens if someone plots the chart of crypto purchasing power compared to USD / some other fiat purchasing power? USD declining and cryptos increasing, I'd bet.

Here's a start: Use this calculator to find out how much you *would* have made if you had just bought a small amount of cryptos every month.

Part 2: Now cry wishing you had knew about cryptos a few years ago.

Part 3: Now the year is 2020, cry even harder while looking at how much it would have been worth if you had bought some cryptos on 25/9/2017.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

About all that "Bitcoin Crashing" News...

BITCOIN IS SO VOLATILE!

IT CRASHES ALL THE TIME!

DON'T BUY ANY BITCOINS!


As gracefully put by @real_vijay and updated by me:

Bitcoin Crashes
Jun 16: -41%
Jan 17: -37%
Mar 17: -31%
May 17: -33%
Jun 17: -39%
Aug 17: -20%
Sep 17: -38% (as of now)

Bitcoin Prices
30 Jun 16: $636
31 Jan 17: $970
28 Mar 17: $1,195
31 May 17: $2,303
30 Jun 17: $2,455
31 Aug 17: $4,743
30 Sep 17:   ?


It's times like these when every mother donkey cow is suddenly an expert on the definition of financial assets and are calling Bitcoin / crypto a scam or a fraud that makes me just want to give up trying to explain just how wrong they are.
 

I mean, why the hell would any intelligent person own any bitcoins, right?
It is obviously in a bubble, right?
It can't possibly go higher right?
Isn't it WORTHLESS?
Based on NOTHING?

It's okay, you can just watch me get rich instead of joining me.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Crypto Ramblings Sep 17

I have been travelling and the crypto markets have been lit (by lit, I mean on fire and burning to the ground), so it has been hard for me to blog until now.

I did make a quick post that there is a crypto GSS that was happening in early Sep, and now I am fairly certain that the bulk of the downside has passed. Rest assured, my money was where my mouth was at and I was buying all the way down (from ETH 388 all the way down to 262).

In just 4 days at the start of September, ETH dropped a massive 29%, lol.
BTC was not spared either and dropped 15% during the same time. But remember now, BTC is supposed to be the bigger, stronger and more mature currency.

Since the 1 Sep highs, BTC's drawdown hit 25% (it touched 40% in the last crypto bear) and ETH's drawdown was slightly deeper at 35%.

I hate using the word FUD, but there is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt.... by people who aren't invested in crypto. Since I've started my crypto journey and more of my friends have found out that I am doing it, I've received a lot of FUD articles with the recent drop. I know its half concern and sincerity - they know that I'm in it and they want to tell me about this news - but I also know that it is half "I told you its crazy and risky, get out now!".

As convictions go, I'm a complete convert of cryptos.

Honestly, people talking about whether its actually worth anything or not are years behind the current situation of cryptos now. We are long past the discussion if cryptos are worthless. Talking about cryptos if you're up to speed on the discussion is never about "well what if you wake up tomorrow and cryptos are worth nothing?" anymore. They are DEFINITELY worth something, the question now should be, how much?

Governments are not banning it and calling it scams anymore. They are instead trying to regulate it and stem retarded investors from getting burnt in it. We've past the phase of denial of cryptos and we are currently in the bargaining and negotiation phase. Within 2-3 years, we should be firmly in the phase of mass adoption.

The China crypto news isn't that cryptos are illegal. It is that fundraising through ICOs is illegal and should follow a proper process. The news of possible exchange closes is another thing - most likely the need for licencing to continue operation.

The prospects of crypto are EXTREMELY rosy right now, due to the fact that most people are NOT in it yet. When the rest of the world jumps on board the crypto train, it's going to end up like any major world currency, except news that move it will not be domestic numbers or election outcomes - it would be technological updates and adoption metrics.

One of the more interesting and mainstream usage of blockchain can be clearly seen by AXA's integration of travel insurance on the Ethereum blockchain. I fully expect more and more businesses and services to be built on PUBLIC blockchains where everyone can verify the authenticity of the data.


In other news, there are tons of crypto ATMs being rolled out all over the world, exchanges for crypto-fiat trades are exploding like wildfire everywhere and governments and businesses are hiring blockchain experts and integrating blockchain solutions (ala our very own Project Ubin).

Honestly, if you are STILL skeptical of cryptos as a technological force to be reckoned with, you must be extremely tech unsavvy to be unable to grasp what a massive leap of technology we are at the forefront of.

That said, progress in blockchain tech does NOT equate to massively awesome cryptocurrency returns. It does seem very correlated for now though.

I currently have 2 independent thesis on why crypto is going to make me insanely rich and fabulous.

1) The world realizes the need for SOME VERY IMPORTANT THINGS to be decentralized. A lot of trust systems will move onto the blockchain - simple cannibalization. And trust me, there are tons of things that SHOULD be on the blockchain - any kind of contract imaginable, ownership deeds (which includes every single financial assets that you can think of - real estate, stocks, bonds, etc), important snapshots of data... as long as people are willing to pay for an immutable copy to be kept on the blockchain, it will be on a blockchain and money is going to change hands.

2) The world realizes that the current monetary system of credit and debt is completely retarded and unsustainable in the long run and people actually move away from manipulated fiat currencies and adopt globalized and fair cryptocurrencies instead. Unlike precious metals, cryptos are extremely feasible and would actually be the preferred currency in today's day and age. (Precious metals will still be valuable in such an outcome for sure though, don't get me wrong. I've liquidated everything else except my precious metals, haha)

As much as I am sure that outcome 2 will happen eventually, I'm banking on outcome 1 to happen first, and guess what? I can already see all the gears in motion for that. No, even more than that, I am invested into cryptos that will be used in all these future applications of public blockchains.

Oh and for those wondering how my portfolio is doing with the crypto CRASH (yes, more than -20% is considered a crash), I'm very glad to report that I am STILL in profits. I wonder how fabulous things are going to be when the market eventually recovers? All the cryptos that I am holding onto have plenty of good news coming over the next few weeks and months. To be honest, if they don't double in value I'd be pretty disappointed. Cryptos have entirely screwed up the expected returns that I expect from investments now. And guess what? Amongst my crypto peers, I'm the most lowball in terms of returns expectations!

So the big question that you have all been waiting for: Can the market go lower from here? Probably unlikely, but it is certainly possible. I'm thinking that it can poke lower and bounce around these areas, but I'm looking at a recovery from these levels, not a lower move down. I've fully invested my portfolio allocation for crypto at this point of time... is that conviction enough? That said, I'm all prepared for shit to hit the fan. My lower bound estimate for BTC is $3000 and for ETH is $120. When it reaches those levels, the warchest dust will be blown off and I will be ALL IN at that point of time - I will live and die by crypto.

Perhaps in the future when I look back at this post, I'd ask myself why I didn't go all-in when this might be the last chance that the world sees sub $300 ETH.

I guess my tune and optimism might change if (note that I did not use when) my portfolio finally goes negative, but for now even with the huge downward moves, I sleep happily and comfortably at night.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Crytpo GSS!

I'm travelling, so I'll keep it brief.

The crypto market felt very overheated. In 1 and a half months, Ethereum went from $140 to $400 and Bitcoin went from $1900 to $5000. It has just stopped it's ridiculous ascent.

Honestly, I felt that the gains have been too fast, too quick and too steep. Even with all the new money flooding in the prop the market, the market does have "some" sort of mechanism that helps to achieve "fair" values.

I know in the recent weeks, tons and tons and tons of fresh, new investors have been joining the crypto game. How do I know? A few things - the massive numbers of emails that are being sent to me, the spike of group members in the Telegram group that I am in, and the general increase of interest of it with the general public.

As much as I would like to see mainstream adoption of cryptos, the technology is quite user-unfriendly still at these stages. However, progress is being made at rapid speeds and I'm quite certain that by 2020, cryptos will be a huge force to be reckoned with.

Anyway, what this means is that all the new people in the past weeks have seen huge gains of up to 185% in the major currencies, and much more in the alternative and smaller ones. A shakeout to scare all these newbies and do a transfer from weak hands to strong hands is necessary for a healthy market, in my opinion.

Many of these people either own it through a CFD and are just trading it, or own it through an exchange. Almost all of them have never made a transaction with it. It's scary to think that people are throwing in thousands of dollars into this "technology", but they actually have never used it before and don't even really know what it does. Oh well, I guess it's okay as long as it props up the prices of the cryptos I own? Haha

Over the past day, Ethereum have dropping an astonishing 15% within a day. Anyone that thinks the crypto market is maturing to the point that there isn't much volatility and opportunities anymore is clearly out of their mind.

Hopefully this "dip" is actually part of something bigger and flushes out the weak hands and money chasers. It's a good time to separate the flippers from the long term believers for many projects as well.

I'd expect this correction to last a while, enough to make the newbies panic and we have another dip lower. Personally, I've been very disciplined to gradually scale myself in as the prices keep dropping.

With the upcoming Metropolis part 1 hardfork and a few good ICOs coming up, I'm particularly very excited for the progress and development of all my interested projects. I'm quite sure that by end of Q1 2018, my portfolio is going to be very nice and fat with many of my invested tokens making huge profits with their huge progresses.

Crypto is a crazy game guys. If you have no idea what you are doing and if you are only in it for the money, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Right now, I'm fully prepared for the market to drop another 40% from these already lower prices. I hope it doesn't come to that, but that's just the kind of volatility and buffers that I think about.

Stay safe, it's a crazy world out there.

Friday, September 1, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (End of Aug 17 Results)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I will doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

Since then until now, I have been accumulating some cryptos and I have been investing them into different ideas. I think I'll just share my performance so far and see how this post goes.


Compared to my performance just 1 week ago, I'd say thinks are looking mighty fine.

If (strictly hypothetically speaking) I sold off all those cryptos now and converted it back to SGD, the returns I would get would be "Returns from SGD Capital Investment". I'm looking at gains of between 29% - 274%. Delicious.

I've taken note of the values today and I'm thinking if I should reset the gains and make 1st Sep the base value. I'll think about it more.

-----------------------------------

The above is just the returns of my Blackbox investing portion of my portfolio that I'm sharing and that is definitely not my entire portfolio.

Investing in crypto is crazy. But the returns are crazy as well.