Saturday, October 21, 2017

Bitcoin broke $6000 and $100,000,000,000 Market Cap

Source: Marketwatch, CNBC, Coinmarketcap

Okay back to the usual MSM bullshit of cryptocurrencies being a bubble, fraud, scams and ponzis.

I mean, no one ACTUALLY makes money from buying any of these "investments", right? /sarc

Friday, October 20, 2017

EZ Crypto Portfolio

Since I've gone full crypto a while ago, I get plenty of questions regarding investing into cryptos.

Honestly, I think that it is a very, very complicated art. It requires a lot of technical understanding and experience to make better-than-average calls on most of the niche and specialized cryptos.

However, that doesn't mean that if you don't understand it, you can't make money from it.

Take for example the ridiculous US stock market and its insane valuations. Can it go up? Yup. Can you explain why? Nope.

For anyone daring enough to venture into cryptos without first gaining a deeper understanding to the technology begin it and the tons of factors affecting it, I would strong caution them to AVOID alternative coins.

Just buying and holding bitcoins and ethereum would be a simple and easy way for most people to get exposure into crypto without taking on the multitudes of additional risks that are present in smaller crypto that these stalwarts no longer have, or have extremely low risks of suffering from.

I almost like to think of BTC/ETH as being bonds and stocks. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can adjust accordingly.

I'm 100% positive that just a simple portfolio of 50% BTC and 50% ETH will outperform the global stock market and the local stock markets. While there might be volatility, I would expect the mid term (3-5 year) returns to be exceedingly positive.

Let's run an example starting today, shall we?

Assume $10,000 SGD initial capital, USDSGD rate of 1.3600 and frictionless costs, let's start tracking.

Portfolio 1 would be the $SPY, or the S&P 500 ETF. At 255.79 USD, we can get a total of 28.746 units.

Portfolio 2 would be the $ES3, or the STI ETF at 3.38 SGD, we can get a total of 2958.580 units.

Portfolio 3 would be a simple 50/50 split BTC ETH at 5654 USD and 307.50 USD respectively for a total of 0.6502 BTC and 11.956 ETH.

Portfolio 4 (my personal pick), is a skewed 25/75 split of BTC ETH. With the same values, we can get 0.3251 BTC and 17.934 ETH.

Let me give a short primer on my crypto picks.

BTC is the big daddy of all crypto. It has the biggest and best brand name and pretty much everyone has heard of it before, though they might not actually know what it is. It is the one in all the headlines, but most importantly it is the GATEWAY crypto and all other crypto that do not trade directly with fiat will always trade with a price against BTC. This means that it is gets propped up by both fiat inflows and alternative outflows.

ETH in a very simplistic description, an upgraded and programmable BTC. It's faster, cheaper to transact and has many more applications than just simple value transfer. ETH has a large enough userbase as well as developers. I believe that it is a clear and easy pick to succeed. It has the perfect balance of significantly better technology than BTC, and also the community of users and developers to support it and push it forward.

I personally believe that ETH will take over and replace BTC within the next 2 years, especially as the usefulness and applications of ETH expands with all the development surrounding it - both on a protocol basis and dapps being built on top of it. Therefore, I have assigned a larger weight to it. I have done the same in my own actual personal portfolio.

Either way, my personal belief is that cryptos at this stage of time will be massively outperforming the traditional stock market and I have put my money where my mouth is at. I strongly do not suggest anyone to enter without knowing what they are doing. Instead, just monitor this simulated portfolio along with me and we can see how things go!

Additional note: Obviously I'm not providing back tests because it is PAINFULLY obvious (oh, so much regret) that either crypto portfolio would have massively outperformed the traditional ones. Many people believe that cryptos are in a massive bubble and its a giant ponzi scheme / fraud that will be worth nothing... soon. We'll just see about that.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Can Bitcoin be considered a Good Investment?

I have to admit, since I've gone full crypto-tard, I've been spending less and less time reading about the stock market and following local blogs. I've been a zombie for the last few months devouring and learning about the crypto-markets like crazy.

However, I saw these posts by B from 3Fs and Uncle CW8888 about what is a good investment and I'd thought I'd throw in my 2 cents on a particular "investment asset" that people are talking about these days, and one which I consider myself to be more familiar with than 99% of the population.

The basics

No, not the basics of bitcoin. But the basics of what I consider to be a good investment. A good investment has only simple quality in my opinion:

Future value of investment (and all its payouts / divdends) will be higher than current value

Some people are yield focused. Some people are capital gains focused. I'm into total returns. I do have a preference for yield though, but in all honesty, I rather higher total returns.

Therefore are collectible stamps an investment? Gold, silver? Pokemon cards? Autographs of famous people? They have no cashflow. But yes, they are investments. If you don't think so, you're a yield-tard. Take off your bias glasses and admit that though it might not be YOUR most comfortable style of investing, it is a legit investment.

Why Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin a ponzi? No.
Is the value of Bitcoin a ponzi? Maybe.

Bitcoin does not need more and more money pumping into it to stay alive and continue existing. Bitcoin exists, regardless of the value of each coin. It has no idea what it is worth. It just exists.

The value of bitcoins is another thing though. And it keeps going higher and higher and higher. Why?

Bitcoin cannot be tainted or manipulated.

This means that no single authority can suddenly create more bitcoins out of thin air. When people talk about bitcoins, they like to use "scarcity" to justify it's value. I might be disagreeing on technical definition, but to me the value of bitcoins comes from the fact that NO ONE can add more bitcoins into the system that what all users have already agreed on.

This means no QE. No money printing. No magical inflation. None of all that governmental interventionist crap. It is what it is, and no single user can overrule the fundamental rules of bitcoin. The only way to change this is to get the majority of stakeholders to agree to a change. And as stakeholders, you can be rest assured that they will only agree to changes to enrich themselves, NOT to dilute their holdings and end up with less value.

Bitcoin is not governed by governments, officials, central banks, or all these people who have no repercussions or punishment if they screw up with their experimental policies.

Bitcoin is governed by users and therefore everyone is forced to play by the same rules. No special surprises. Level playing field.

Bitcoin is permissionless and unstoppable

You do not need to apply for a bitcoin account.
You do not need to pay a minimum sum to open a bitcoin account.
You do not need to get security clearance or pass some KYC to open a bitcoin account.
You do not need permission to send money.
You do not need to declare when your value transfer is above a certain limit.
You do not need to ask questions when you receive money.
You do not need to justify from whom you received from.
You do not need to get permission to close your account and transfer away all your money.
No one can prevent you from making a transaction.
No one can prevent you from receiving a transaction.
No one needs to know your real identity to make a transaction.
Transactions takes within minutes to successfully be completed.
Transaction fees can cost just cents or dollars.

Is there a value to having a system of value transfer that is permissionless and unstoppable? I think that there is.

My thesis

The world is riddled with plenty of bad currency. It's a rotting and failing system that is going to collapse on its own weight. The idea of honest money is not some crazy and insane notion. It is what we used to have, before fractional banking and phony economics became the permanent feature of modern finance.

Bitcoin WILL be a global currency. Not only that, but it can also be a transitional currency for failing currencies with no backup plan (Venezuela is a key case study of this). A currency that no government can stop, control or manipulate. A currency where owners of it need not worry about hyper inflation or money printing. Along with it, it is also a global payment system with no third party, and all the benefits of peer to peer transactions.

There is value being both a currency and payment system that cannot be tampered with, that is true and honest, for every user, transmitting whether they are transmitting $10 or $10,000,000.

Ending note

While I am a strong believer of Bitcoin, I believe that a few other cryptos offer EVEN more compelling investment cases. I do own some bitcoin, but it is a very, very, very small portion of my portfolio.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Bitcoin is a Fraud and is in a Bubble

Just tweets with no comments.



Merely stating facts.

Bitcoin "Reverse" Crashing

Remember last month how everyone was saying that the sky is falling because China banned crypto exchanges?

The markets had a pretty good -40% correction. Plenty of people were telling me to exit the crypto markets. Lol. I did not listen to them. I doubled down and went in EVEN deeper.

Price peak before the 40% crash? $4980
Price at the bottom of the crash? $2975 (please see this post where I called $3000 ehehe)
Price right now, at 1.38am? $5276

Yup, bitcoin is back to new all time highs. (I'd reckon we're probably a bit lower now, but thus is the nature of cryptos)

Not saying I'm a genius or what. But everyone's reaction to last month's volatility and fear of cryptos is EXACTLY why people like me can make money. Strong hands + big balls. A very dangerous recipe if you're holding onto fundamentally worthless assets. However, I do not believe that is the case for me.

While I am personally skeptical of Bitcoins being adopted as the main crypto of the future (because of fees and scabability issues) and for it to hit the crazy high valuations that a lot of bitcoin maximalists are calling for, I am still a true-believer of cryptos in the long run. That said, I still do believe that bitcoin will continue to grow in valuations, though I think other cryptos have more growth potential, and a handful have the potential to dethrone bitcoin as the largest crypto.

I will now try to refrain from saying cryptocurrencies, because not all crypto are currencies.

On my radar now is Ethereum which has been chilling out at the $300 USD levels for a bit now.

It has it's Byzantium hardfork upgrade, the upcoming DevCon3 and tons of dapps on its network just waiting on the upgrade before pushing out the releases of their projects. All of these should be extremely price positive for Ethereum. I predict a takeover of Bitcoin's marketcap by the end of 2018.

My first BTC I bought was $2574. Today it is $5276. I wonder what it is going to be at the end of the year? A lot higher than now, I'd bet (literally, with my money).

The amount of people discovering, learning and finally understanding the insane potential of blockchain technology is growing every day. While news of bitcoin hitting new all time highs feeds into the overall hype and will send in a lot of new sheep into the crypto world to fill up the slaughterhouses, it isn't all bad. The news will also allow some people to discover and be mindblown by the world of crypto.

Again, as a PSA and friendly reminder, cryptos are risky and dangerous af. If you have no idea what you're doing, it's best just to stick to whatever you know. Buying into something you don't know is the fastest way to lose your money.

You're always welcome to drop in and check up on me to see if I've become a bankrupt or a millionaire.

Monday, October 2, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (End of Sep 17 Results)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I will doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

I've decided to change up the presentation style a bit from last month, but I think things are still quite clear and easy to read.


Some interesting points to note:

- The crypto market is much lower end of Sep compared to end of Aug
- Due to the lower crypto prices, the FX returns are much lower compared to the end of last month
- Returns in crypto are still nice and positive
- Overall returns are still very good

My "Blue Crazy Dragon" fund is seriously under-performing although it is technically a much more risky investment with a higher expected return. One month's return is too short to tell, but I'm hopefully that it can catch up next month.

If my funds continue to do well (since this is all testing as proof of concept right now), I may open up a "Black Wolf 4" fund, as well as top up my contribution in some other the other funds.

-----------------------------------

The above is just the returns of my Blackbox investing portion of my portfolio that I'm sharing and that is definitely not my entire portfolio.

Investing in crypto is crazy. But the returns are crazy as well.

Saturday, September 30, 2017

ONE MILLION, HUAT AH!

If I had a dollar for every view that I have on this blog, I'd have...


It took me 34 months to get my first 500,000 views.
From then, it took 16 months to get my next 500,000 views and hit the magic 1,000,000 number!

I'm pretty sure your number would be higher than this one here

It's been a really interesting journey since August 2013 and I think I've grown and learnt a lot as a financial blogger and, more importantly, as an investor.

From dabbling into unit trusts, I've grown and explored into many things like stock picking, index investing, bonds, P2P loans and yes, precious metals. I've made money in *almost* every single thing that I've done so far, but I do want to admit that the only time I lost money was when I was trying to "trade" the market, going short and using leverage during the early 2016 period. It was a painful trade, but it was not my widowmaker. I cut my losses, learnt some very important lessons about the market, and more importantly, about myself. In case anyone was wondering, those losses have since been recovered and I'm back into fat profits as far as my entire portfolio is concerned. Net worth is powering ahead very strongly, thanks to cryptos.


2017 has so far been a very big year of changes for me - financially. As regular readers would know, I've abandoned all traditional investing advice and I'm now balls deep into cryptos.

I don't want this piece to be all about cryptos, so I'll just stop right there.

I guess I'm going to lose a lot of readership now that I no longer cover the mainstream stuff anymore, but that's okay with me. If you hadn't realized by now, this blog is to fulfil my need to mentally dump what is going on in my mind so that I can organize my thoughts and move on. Do I blog for the readers? Sometimes with PSAs and interesting lobangs, but honestly, it's mostly for myself. I guess we've got a good win-win situation going on here, right?

As of now, my plan is to continue my main focus on cryptos, and of course to blog about other interesting stuff, especially local finance stuff (non-stocks related). I'll throw in all my cheapskate travelling too if I happen to do those kind of things (ala Korea 2017). Even if you guys don't enjoy reading it, I enjoy showing off how you don't need to spend a bomb to have an awesome holiday. It's not that I can't afford an expensive holiday. It's that I don't enjoy having such travel experiences. I also think it's important that people in my generation know that you don't need to blow 2-3k to have a nice holiday.

Anyway, I want to thank all of you readers out there for dropping by and reading my stuff. I know that MOST of you don't comment, which is fine. Just knowing that there are views coming from real people visiting and digesting my nonsense is a nice motivational boost for me to keep on blogging.

So what's my next milestone? I guess it'll be 2 million. 2 million what? Well, lets see which comes first - if my blog hits 2,000,000 views or if my portfolio hits $2,000,000, ahahaha!

May I never get bored of blogging and may you always enjoy reading the crap I post!

Friday, September 29, 2017

"Store" your Crypto On Exchanges? MMMMMMMMMMM



By Stelian's count, there have been 316,000 BTC stolen since Oct 2011 until Apr 2017.

How much is 316,000 BTC worth in today's price?

$1,802,337,600 SGD

$1.8 BILLLION sgd.

Is it worth it to pay $100 for a hardware wallet?

You tell me.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

PSA: Consumer Alert for Cryptos

I think a good place to start for people interested in cryptos is this page on MoneySense.

At first, I was slightly annoyed that it is in the same category of "Common Unregulated Schemes" such as Gold buy back programmes, land banking and forex trading software.

But on second thought, there are a SHIT TON of risks in cryptos.

Scams and frauds are a daily occurrence. Hacks happen all the time.

As much as I am balls deep invested in crypto, I want to make it explicitly clear that this is not an "investment" for "everyone". A lot of people have no clue what they are getting themselves into.

I put it at high odds that people will lose their money from getting scammed or hacked, rather than the value of their holdings go to zero.

In cryptos, "caveat emptor". That means, if you buy it, it's your problem. No recourse.

-------------------------------------- End of PSA --------------------------------------

Kk, there we go. PSA over.

BTC is back over $4000. ETH is back over $300. Are we back in bull mode?

With the amount of money pouring into the space and development progressing strong, I quite feel that the "crash" of September marked a nice significant low to flush out all the noobs. I am fully prepared for cryptos to continue to power upwards from here on out.

And if cryptos tank another 40% from here? Guess what, I'd still be okay too. 

All that China news? Who cares? Not me, for sure. The point of a decentralized crypto currency is that nobody should give a shit what any single person or authority says. The network is decided by its users, not observers. 

I am all bunkered down into my positions and I am ready for each and every positive news to punch my portfolio profits higher and higher.

Profits are extremely fat and healthy now. If I walk away now, I would be locking profits that not even being invested in the stock market for the next 10 years could give me. 

Normally I'd want to sell my winners and lock in my profits - I'm just conservative like that. But considering how immature this market is and how much more we have to go, I'm not even tempted to cash out anything back to SGD yet. We've got a long way more to go, and the end of the line for me is definitely much MUCH higher than where we are now.

Monday, September 25, 2017

"Ponzi" Scheme still profitable

My alleged investments into "ponzi" schemes have been working quite well lately.

Even with the massive market crash of Aug where everything dropped 40-50%, my portfolio is still holding onto gains very strongly.

Yes, this "ponzi" scheme has managed to sucker plenty of Fortune 500 companies to endorse its technology, including the noob likes of well known illegitimate scam companies such as BP, Microsoft, CME Group, Reuters, Intel, Deloitte, State Street and Samsung. Even many beloved banks seem to have been suckers into this "ponzi", such as Credit Suisse, ING, MUFG, JP Morgan, National Bank of Canada, Rabobank, Santandar and UBS.


The level of the scam is so high that even governments such as Japan and Korea have been conned to regard theses "ponzi" tokens as legal. Oh wait, Singapore and Switzerland too? And so many other countries too?!

Apparently even Kakao is going to list cryptos for the run-of-the-mill Korean to get suckered into making these "ponzi" investments also.

Oh dear lord, how have so many people been suckered by this massive ponzi scheme?

The scale of this "ponzi" is too big. This has got to stop!

Tell Trump. Build Wall. Need UN assistance. Sum1 plz halp. Call 999 kthx. 

/sarc

Sure, most of the companies are using private strains of the Eth blockchain. But this is just the ETH ecosystem, there are plenty of other cryptos that have partnerships, links and even actual adoption and usage by real world companies.

Governments and regulators are all taking heed of this because the size of the projected future of it is too big that it can no longer be ignored without them being viewed as completely incompetent.

Official stances have completely shelved the "is it a scam?" debate and the answer is a resounding no. Now the debate continues with "is it a currency? an asset? a security?" and most importantly "what next?".

I think many have realized the futility of trying to stop or ban something that was created with the special and specific trait to be ban-resistant.

Cryptos can never be banned and they cannot be stopped. It's not an easy job for people to figure out how to leverage on these technologies and how to integrate them into existing frameworks without contradicting existing rules.

Anyway, the biggest "ponzi" scheme in my opinion is the fiat system that we were all born and enslaved to. If crypto is a ponzi scheme, please tell me how that sweet sweet fiat / USD is holding up for you in terms of purchasing power?


All fiat have a terminal value of nothing. It's not my opinion. This is a historical fact.

(*insert smart alec comment* - Hey give me all your fiat then since you think it's worthless kek. 
Reply: It's mostly in cryptos already, sorry. I'll be happy to trade you my precious fiat for your worthless cryptos over on the exchanges)

I wonder what happens if someone plots the chart of crypto purchasing power compared to USD / some other fiat purchasing power? USD declining and cryptos increasing, I'd bet.

Here's a start: Use this calculator to find out how much you *would* have made if you had just bought a small amount of cryptos every month.

Part 2: Now cry wishing you had knew about cryptos a few years ago.

Part 3: Now the year is 2020, cry even harder while looking at how much it would have been worth if you had bought some cryptos on 25/9/2017.

Saturday, September 16, 2017

About all that "Bitcoin Crashing" News...

BITCOIN IS SO VOLATILE!

IT CRASHES ALL THE TIME!

DON'T BUY ANY BITCOINS!


As gracefully put by @real_vijay and updated by me:

Bitcoin Crashes
Jun 16: -41%
Jan 17: -37%
Mar 17: -31%
May 17: -33%
Jun 17: -39%
Aug 17: -20%
Sep 17: -38% (as of now)

Bitcoin Prices
30 Jun 16: $636
31 Jan 17: $970
28 Mar 17: $1,195
31 May 17: $2,303
30 Jun 17: $2,455
31 Aug 17: $4,743
30 Sep 17:   ?


It's times like these when every mother donkey cow is suddenly an expert on the definition of financial assets and are calling Bitcoin / crypto a scam or a fraud that makes me just want to give up trying to explain just how wrong they are.
 

I mean, why the hell would any intelligent person own any bitcoins, right?
It is obviously in a bubble, right?
It can't possibly go higher right?
Isn't it WORTHLESS?
Based on NOTHING?

It's okay, you can just watch me get rich instead of joining me.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Crypto Ramblings Sep 17

I have been travelling and the crypto markets have been lit (by lit, I mean on fire and burning to the ground), so it has been hard for me to blog until now.

I did make a quick post that there is a crypto GSS that was happening in early Sep, and now I am fairly certain that the bulk of the downside has passed. Rest assured, my money was where my mouth was at and I was buying all the way down (from ETH 388 all the way down to 262).

In just 4 days at the start of September, ETH dropped a massive 29%, lol.
BTC was not spared either and dropped 15% during the same time. But remember now, BTC is supposed to be the bigger, stronger and more mature currency.

Since the 1 Sep highs, BTC's drawdown hit 25% (it touched 40% in the last crypto bear) and ETH's drawdown was slightly deeper at 35%.

I hate using the word FUD, but there is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt.... by people who aren't invested in crypto. Since I've started my crypto journey and more of my friends have found out that I am doing it, I've received a lot of FUD articles with the recent drop. I know its half concern and sincerity - they know that I'm in it and they want to tell me about this news - but I also know that it is half "I told you its crazy and risky, get out now!".

As convictions go, I'm a complete convert of cryptos.

Honestly, people talking about whether its actually worth anything or not are years behind the current situation of cryptos now. We are long past the discussion if cryptos are worthless. Talking about cryptos if you're up to speed on the discussion is never about "well what if you wake up tomorrow and cryptos are worth nothing?" anymore. They are DEFINITELY worth something, the question now should be, how much?

Governments are not banning it and calling it scams anymore. They are instead trying to regulate it and stem retarded investors from getting burnt in it. We've past the phase of denial of cryptos and we are currently in the bargaining and negotiation phase. Within 2-3 years, we should be firmly in the phase of mass adoption.

The China crypto news isn't that cryptos are illegal. It is that fundraising through ICOs is illegal and should follow a proper process. The news of possible exchange closes is another thing - most likely the need for licencing to continue operation.

The prospects of crypto are EXTREMELY rosy right now, due to the fact that most people are NOT in it yet. When the rest of the world jumps on board the crypto train, it's going to end up like any major world currency, except news that move it will not be domestic numbers or election outcomes - it would be technological updates and adoption metrics.

One of the more interesting and mainstream usage of blockchain can be clearly seen by AXA's integration of travel insurance on the Ethereum blockchain. I fully expect more and more businesses and services to be built on PUBLIC blockchains where everyone can verify the authenticity of the data.


In other news, there are tons of crypto ATMs being rolled out all over the world, exchanges for crypto-fiat trades are exploding like wildfire everywhere and governments and businesses are hiring blockchain experts and integrating blockchain solutions (ala our very own Project Ubin).

Honestly, if you are STILL skeptical of cryptos as a technological force to be reckoned with, you must be extremely tech unsavvy to be unable to grasp what a massive leap of technology we are at the forefront of.

That said, progress in blockchain tech does NOT equate to massively awesome cryptocurrency returns. It does seem very correlated for now though.

I currently have 2 independent thesis on why crypto is going to make me insanely rich and fabulous.

1) The world realizes the need for SOME VERY IMPORTANT THINGS to be decentralized. A lot of trust systems will move onto the blockchain - simple cannibalization. And trust me, there are tons of things that SHOULD be on the blockchain - any kind of contract imaginable, ownership deeds (which includes every single financial assets that you can think of - real estate, stocks, bonds, etc), important snapshots of data... as long as people are willing to pay for an immutable copy to be kept on the blockchain, it will be on a blockchain and money is going to change hands.

2) The world realizes that the current monetary system of credit and debt is completely retarded and unsustainable in the long run and people actually move away from manipulated fiat currencies and adopt globalized and fair cryptocurrencies instead. Unlike precious metals, cryptos are extremely feasible and would actually be the preferred currency in today's day and age. (Precious metals will still be valuable in such an outcome for sure though, don't get me wrong. I've liquidated everything else except my precious metals, haha)

As much as I am sure that outcome 2 will happen eventually, I'm banking on outcome 1 to happen first, and guess what? I can already see all the gears in motion for that. No, even more than that, I am invested into cryptos that will be used in all these future applications of public blockchains.

Oh and for those wondering how my portfolio is doing with the crypto CRASH (yes, more than -20% is considered a crash), I'm very glad to report that I am STILL in profits. I wonder how fabulous things are going to be when the market eventually recovers? All the cryptos that I am holding onto have plenty of good news coming over the next few weeks and months. To be honest, if they don't double in value I'd be pretty disappointed. Cryptos have entirely screwed up the expected returns that I expect from investments now. And guess what? Amongst my crypto peers, I'm the most lowball in terms of returns expectations!

So the big question that you have all been waiting for: Can the market go lower from here? Probably unlikely, but it is certainly possible. I'm thinking that it can poke lower and bounce around these areas, but I'm looking at a recovery from these levels, not a lower move down. I've fully invested my portfolio allocation for crypto at this point of time... is that conviction enough? That said, I'm all prepared for shit to hit the fan. My lower bound estimate for BTC is $3000 and for ETH is $120. When it reaches those levels, the warchest dust will be blown off and I will be ALL IN at that point of time - I will live and die by crypto.

Perhaps in the future when I look back at this post, I'd ask myself why I didn't go all-in when this might be the last chance that the world sees sub $300 ETH.

I guess my tune and optimism might change if (note that I did not use when) my portfolio finally goes negative, but for now even with the huge downward moves, I sleep happily and comfortably at night.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Crytpo GSS!

I'm travelling, so I'll keep it brief.

The crypto market felt very overheated. In 1 and a half months, Ethereum went from $140 to $400 and Bitcoin went from $1900 to $5000. It has just stopped it's ridiculous ascent.

Honestly, I felt that the gains have been too fast, too quick and too steep. Even with all the new money flooding in the prop the market, the market does have "some" sort of mechanism that helps to achieve "fair" values.

I know in the recent weeks, tons and tons and tons of fresh, new investors have been joining the crypto game. How do I know? A few things - the massive numbers of emails that are being sent to me, the spike of group members in the Telegram group that I am in, and the general increase of interest of it with the general public.

As much as I would like to see mainstream adoption of cryptos, the technology is quite user-unfriendly still at these stages. However, progress is being made at rapid speeds and I'm quite certain that by 2020, cryptos will be a huge force to be reckoned with.

Anyway, what this means is that all the new people in the past weeks have seen huge gains of up to 185% in the major currencies, and much more in the alternative and smaller ones. A shakeout to scare all these newbies and do a transfer from weak hands to strong hands is necessary for a healthy market, in my opinion.

Many of these people either own it through a CFD and are just trading it, or own it through an exchange. Almost all of them have never made a transaction with it. It's scary to think that people are throwing in thousands of dollars into this "technology", but they actually have never used it before and don't even really know what it does. Oh well, I guess it's okay as long as it props up the prices of the cryptos I own? Haha

Over the past day, Ethereum have dropping an astonishing 15% within a day. Anyone that thinks the crypto market is maturing to the point that there isn't much volatility and opportunities anymore is clearly out of their mind.

Hopefully this "dip" is actually part of something bigger and flushes out the weak hands and money chasers. It's a good time to separate the flippers from the long term believers for many projects as well.

I'd expect this correction to last a while, enough to make the newbies panic and we have another dip lower. Personally, I've been very disciplined to gradually scale myself in as the prices keep dropping.

With the upcoming Metropolis part 1 hardfork and a few good ICOs coming up, I'm particularly very excited for the progress and development of all my interested projects. I'm quite sure that by end of Q1 2018, my portfolio is going to be very nice and fat with many of my invested tokens making huge profits with their huge progresses.

Crypto is a crazy game guys. If you have no idea what you are doing and if you are only in it for the money, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Right now, I'm fully prepared for the market to drop another 40% from these already lower prices. I hope it doesn't come to that, but that's just the kind of volatility and buffers that I think about.

Stay safe, it's a crazy world out there.

Friday, September 1, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (End of Aug 17 Results)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I will doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

Since then until now, I have been accumulating some cryptos and I have been investing them into different ideas. I think I'll just share my performance so far and see how this post goes.


Compared to my performance just 1 week ago, I'd say thinks are looking mighty fine.

If (strictly hypothetically speaking) I sold off all those cryptos now and converted it back to SGD, the returns I would get would be "Returns from SGD Capital Investment". I'm looking at gains of between 29% - 274%. Delicious.

I've taken note of the values today and I'm thinking if I should reset the gains and make 1st Sep the base value. I'll think about it more.

-----------------------------------

The above is just the returns of my Blackbox investing portion of my portfolio that I'm sharing and that is definitely not my entire portfolio.

Investing in crypto is crazy. But the returns are crazy as well.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

[SGX Portfolio] Final Update

This is my final update for my SGX portfolio that I feel I have been running quite successfully since March of 2014. Why?

I just sold off almost everything, that's why!

Yup, pretty much everything.

The only stocks I hold are Croesus, Saizen, Global Investments, Hotung and the STI ETF, pretty much legacy investments that don't require much tending.

Over the years I slowly built up my SGX portfolio from humble beginnings. The best snap shot is the end of last month, where accumulated dividends were $3000, realized gains $1400 and unrealized gains of $100.

I'm not certain if my calculations are correct, but my calculated internal rate of return is 7.0% per annum.

I felt like I made some great calls in the past. Being heavy into foreign REITs was a very easy investment for me that made me a very fair bit of money. Croesus will be gone soon too.

I had narrow escapes with horrible companies, like Noble and China Fishery. I did get caught bagholding with Casa, Sing Heng and 2nd Chance though.

I can't say it was very fun. Countless of hours reading annual reports, looking at charts and referring to my spreadsheets. All that for peanut returns I feel.

My past 2 months in crypto has made MASSSIVEEEE amounts of returns that I really don't give two shits about traditional stock investing anymore. I'm moving on to greener pastures, but don't worry, you can still wave to me, I'll be around.

Some people would be tempted to liken it to the tulip bubble. But is it really a bubble if nobody you know owns any of it? Or if they do, just miniscule amounts? Hmmm...

Sometimes I cry myself to sleep at night wishing I had put all of my capital into cryptos 3.5 years ago. I would definitely be a millionaire by now.

Anyway, I just wanted you guys to know that I am relinquishing all my involvement with the local stock market because, frankly, I don't give a damn anymore.

I'm pretty much cash, gold and cryptos now. Basic barbell strategy. Risk-free af assets + Risky af assets. You can call it the tin foil hat portfolio. Zero cashflow portfolio. Crap portfolio. Snake oil portfolio. Whatever. You don't have to, and you shouldn't be blindly following what I'm doing anyway.

Is this wise? That I don't have any of the "right" investments in my portfolio? I guess we'll find out in a few months and years.

This is madness. I know.

But it feels so good being able not to care anymore.

So long to my credibility as a financial blogger! Cheers!

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Reminder: Gold has better cashflow than bonds of these 13 countries



As much as a crypto fanatic that I've recently been, one of my first true loves in Gold.

With Gold at $1320 and Silver at $17.40, I've got no complaints.

Hopefully looking at $24 silver in December, and of course, I hope gold is coming along for the ride. Let's see how this goes.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Off topic:

By the way, cryptos are heating uppp. At a $165b market cap right now, things are looking very precarious here. Although I'm balls in deep into crypto, I think people should already know by now that I'm at over 100% profits, so if the entire crypto market comes crashing down 50%, I would STILL be in profits.

Jumping into crypto is definitely not advisable unless you know what you're doing, the risks that you are taking and can obviously bear the cost of losing it all.

Then again, people thought that Gold would keep falling in price until the only people bidding them up were jewellers and dentists. That never did happen, did it?

Friday, August 25, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (Test Results)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I will doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

Since then until now, I have been accumulating some cryptos and I have been investing them into different ideas. I think I'll just share my performance so far and see how this post goes.


Since the start of August until now, I have been purchasing cryptos.

If I sold off all those cryptos now and converted it back to SGD, the returns I would get would be "Returns from FX". This is just simple price appreciation of cryptos since the time I bought them and now. My 1 month returns vary from 16-153%.

"Returns from Fund" is the returns that I get in the actual cryptos themselves. My 1 month returns varies from negative 1.3% to positive 17%.

Obviously, my total returns back to SGD is a function of the two - investment returns + FX returns.

Anyway, let's take for example my "Green Angry Kraken 2" Fund. Returns from FX is 153% and returns from the fund itself is 17%. Combine the two returns together and my actual returns if I cash back out to SGD right now is a whopping 197% returns. In less than 1 month. Oh my.

Another example, my "Steady Turtle" Fund. FX returns are 16.66% and returns from the fund is a sad 0.024%. Combined together, my returns back to SGD is only a 16.68%. The low returns of the funds didn't do much, but the FX returns gave it a good boost.

At the end of the month I plan to play around with my data so that I can start the 1st of Sep with a clean slate, then it would be much easier to monitor the returns. For fund returns, I'm expecting 2% a month. For FX returns, it's anyone's guess, but I think in the long run it would be positive.

-----------------------------------

The above is just the returns of my Blackbox investing portion of my portfolio that I'm sharing and that is definitely not my entire portfolio.

In fact, of all my crypto investments so far, the Steady Turtle has been my worst investment with only 15% profits.

Investing in crypto is crazy. But the returns are crazy as well.

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Goodbye Stocks, Bonds, Unit Trusts and Sanity

I am GMGH,
Warden of this blog,
First of this subdomain name,
Protector of (his own) wealth,
Defeater of Insurance Agents,
Breaker of traditional thinking,
Gentle lover of travelling and eating,
Operationally-Ready Soldier of Singapore,

and now...

The sacrilegious heretic of modern personal finance.


If you're rolling your eyes at the GoT references, then screw you for judging me based on the kind of TV shows I watch.

So, pray tell, what sort of sacrilege have I actually done?

I've sold off ALL of my bonds - not much, but it was 2 tranches of the SSBs that had fantastic yields of 2.78% and 2.58%. This is in comparison to the paltry 2.12% you can get on this month's bond.

I've sold off (almost) all of my unit trusts - save my investments in Gold and what I have stuck in the SRS. Goodbye short-term bonds, emerging market bonds, Russia and commodities.

I am also now going to sell off MOST of the holdings in my SGX portfolio. The bulk value of the investments will still be there, but I'm cutting the number of holdings to free up both capital and mind space. A lot of work goes into just maintaining the portfolio, such as recording dividends and checking quarterly performances to make sure that they are not burning to the ground. It is very exhausting for peanuts.

That's nothing too crazy right? After all, yours truly has always been one of the most bearish bloggers, constantly talking about financial meltdowns. So GMGH is just de-risking his portfolio and making a bet that all those asset classes have topped?

No, not really.

I'm going to put most of it into crypto.




STOP GMGH!

CRYPTOS ARE DANGEROUS!

UNREGULATED AND VOLATILE!

DID YOU TAKE YOUR MEDICINE YET?

DID YOU NOT READ THE MAS WARNING?

BUY SGX STOCKS AND HUAT TOGETHER OKAY?

HAVE YOU REALLY GONE INSANE THIS TIME AROUND?

ARE THEY EVEN ASSETS? THEY ARE BACKED BY NOTHING!


I'm sure those are the thoughts that are running through your head right now. I've tried to explain about this technology and my position and take on them in my previous posts - I'm sure I did not do a good enough job in making a strong case for it. Sorry if I'm a bad salesman.

But really, does that matter? I don't need you to be convinced to add confirmation to my own conviction. It's really of no concern to me if none or all of you think this is a good idea.

I think most of you know me for my very pragmatic point of view on things. I even split hairs about the smallest things when I consider interest bank accounts, credit cards, insurance products and what not.

I have also proven that I've outperformed our "benchmark", the STI, over the past few years that I've been invested in the SGX. You don't have to take my word for it. You can just see my previous posts on my buys and sells and my monthly updates (which unfortunately I stopped because I was just lazy). Sure 3.5 years is a short time and it could all just be dumb luck, but hey, a win is a win. A smart gambler leaves a table when he knows he's beaten the odds.

Even my crazy "investments" into precious metals (I know some of you think it's not a real investments because it doesn't generate any "cash flow", lol okay) are in healthy profits although precious metals are still hanging around at multi year lows.

I might have very unorthodox ways of thinking about things and picking investments, but you can't say that I'm a complete idiot. Give me credit where it is due. You can only say that I'm an idiot that has made money... for now. I honestly can't say that you're wrong with a statement like that.

I'm sure many of you have been disapprovingly reading this post so far. I have been waging war internally with myself about this as well. It was not an easy decision to depart from the "proven path", so I struggled with this for a very long time. But now that my mind is made up, I am ready to face the challenges of the crypto world.

Bring it.


For the past few months I've dived deeeeep into the crypto world. Balls deep. Not only that, but for the past 2 months I've been putting my money where my damn mouth is at and went into cryptos with my own cold hard cash. Think of it as my beta testing, or doing a proof of concept.

One of my first few buys was Ethereum at market peak, a whopping $490 USD (even though it actually only peaked at $420... the huge difference in price is because of the shitty exchange prices in Singapore, THANKS COINHAKO). If you watch your investment drop 72% in a month, tell me if your balls shrunk and crawled back up into your body, okay?

Two months on, I'm up 100+% from my capital that I put in. Yes, I've more than doubled my capital in just 2 months. How much is that in absolute value? Well I'll be damned if I give you a number. You can ask, but I won't tell. I must admit that I wasn't expecting such heavy and fast gains, and I still don't expect this to be the norm moving forward. I rather take the "conservative crypto" approach and "only" aim for 40% a year, rather than the aggressive crypto approach that hunts for the next 10-100x jump in value. You'd be amazed how many solid potential 10% pa opportunities there are in crypto that are being shunned because "the returns are too low".

I've taken the red pill and I can't go back. I also can't explain it to you, because you have to see it for yourself. The opportunities in cryptos are mindblowing not because of any special magical attributes that cryptos have over regular traditional investments, but specifically because none of you guys are in there... yet.

Sounds absolutely crazy, but hey, you've got to admit that no matter what happens this is going to be fun to watch, eh? I either become one of the greats of our time, or I explode spectacularly in a big ball of crypto flames and all of you get to be amused and entertained by it while wailing "I TOLD YOU SO", half crying, half laughing.

But with governments and corporations coming on board and recognizing it, by the time this goes mainstream and 50% of financial blogs start to accept and include cryptos in their content, I might already be the biggest baller you would've ever known.


Love me or hate me, just watch me.

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Cashless in Singapore

This CNA article about being cashless in China and this video from the ST should really be a wake up call to Singapore.


Cashless in Singapore?

Wait until neck long long.

Can just crawl to the corner in the hawker centre, roll into a ball and die of starvation.

Except for a handful of places offering the very fail DASH payment system (this is the SCB initiative, not to be confused with DASH, the $2B cryptocurrency), the new and unadopted LiquidPay and of course NETS FlashPay, I would imagine that 99% of transactions at hawker centres are still done by cash and coin.

Reading our own local reports on how it is going (CNA and Today) and comparing it to China clearly shows our lack of progress. It's both embarrassing and pathetic.

It is embarrassing af. That's right, af.

Pathetic why? Smartphones, check. 4G network, check. "Financial hub of Asia", check. Like a bazillion people in the financial industry, check. Cashless P2P payment method, er.... is PayNow counted? LOL.

After reading that articles I got second-hand embarrassed. Maybe we all should go back to our villages in China, kampungs in Malaysia? OH WAIT, the villages in China would still have more advanced payment methods than us, GAWD DAMNIT.

"How can we expect hawkers to suddenly embrace these kind of technologies? THEY ARE SO OLD, THEY DONT KNOW HOW TO USE HANDPHONES."

Well, I'd be damned if old people in China can learn and adopt the shit out of this, but we in Singapore can't.

While most people seem to think it is poor user adoption, I would also say that it is poor merchant adoption. I think 90% of people under 30 would be all for mobile cashless payments, not even a physical card is necessary. But of course, 50% of merchants still don't support NFC technology. "Sorry Sir, no PayWave". Okay, can.

Reluctant to change, lazy to press the buttons, lazy to check phone notifications...

I don't know, sounds like really bad excuses to me. Really. Bad. Excuses.

One of the biggest issues that I had with Japan was their unbelievably archaic way of using money to pay for stuff.

However, I was told that this is not because they can't, but it's largely because all small businesses under-declare taxes, and only businesses that accept cash can do this.

Then again, I can probably think of quite a few occupations in Singapore where the perk is "self-employed means can under declare taxes and don't need to contribute to CPF". Not I say one hor, is I heard people say.

Anyway, whatever.

I have a credit card with me and I always keep a minimum amount of cash, in a variety of small denominations because I am sure I'm going to end up somewhere "Cash only".

Majulah Singapura.

Friday, August 18, 2017

How to send $165,000,000 USD in 2 minutes for $0.67 USD


Bitcoins, that's how. A friend showed me this link and my jaw just dropped.

And of course, you should not just trust, but also verify.

Thank god we have the blockchain because that means we don't have to blindly trust shit on the internet. We can fire up the blockchain and check it and verify it for ourselves.

Here is the tx in question that you can look up yourself: 2248452e2122ff2d446565462cac276bbc8420c5874695a9b5c8e3bca8afa2b2

Check 1: Blockchain.info
Check 2: Blockexplorer.com
Check 3: Blockcypher.com

So there you have it. In 1 minute 55 seconds, 40,000.32 BTC worth $165,000,000 USD then was sent at a cost of $0.67 USD.

People tell me Bitcoins are worthless. The whole mainstream media are throwing around the "tulip" buzzword of the week.

Yet it is still shit on like it's some crazy kook technology used only by criminals and geeks.

But show me how you can move $165 mil in 2 minutes and I'll give you a standing ovation.


Wait, I take that back. Why should I give anyone a standing ovation for doing that?

It's nothing special. You'd just be doing something that can already be done.

Honestly, Bitcoins are the tip of the iceberg about how mindblowing blockchain technology is. I know I'm well on my way on being a full crypto-retard. Never go full-retard. I'm trying hard not to, but I see this is as the freaking biggest opportunity that I will ever get in my life.


Sorry, future GMGH reading this. Your past self is utterly convinced that we have passed the Point of No Return.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Let's talk Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)

I've actually talked about ICOs before, but I just wanted to come back and touch a bit on this topic.

ICO stands for Initial Coin Offerings. In a nutshell, it is a digital Initial Public Offering (IPO).


That was actually in the Straits Times, and I think it's a timely reminder that ICOs are really dangerous and risky.

And I'm not just talking about the risks in investing in a early start-up company. There are plenty and plenty of risks. One of the biggest ones is that it turns out to be a scam. Some people found out the hard way and lost $7.6m of Ether last month, which is now worth $13m. Madness.

There are risks that the company sucks.
There are risks that the company is okay but the product sucks.
There are risks that the company is okay, product is okay, but the market is not ready.
There are risks that the owners run away with all the money.

And the lists goes on and on. Add in that there are also like 20 ways to get hacked or scammed along the way and you can probably realize by now that this is NOT a riskless path to be troding on.

If you currently only "invest" in fixed deposits and endowment products, this is DEFINITELY not for you.

tldr - PLENTY OF RISKS. If you can't handle the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

Now that we've got the MANY risks clearly spelled out, let's see why this is happening. Michael from Boxmining did a fantastic job in this video and that spurred me on to write this article.


The main thought that I have is that this does not prove a mania in cryptocurrencies. Why do I think that? I feel that the hype is actually surrounding the fact that average Joe investors like you and me can now actually get into and be involved in early round startup funding. This used to be exclusively meant for venture capitalist and deep pocketed angel investors, but blockchain and decentralization has quickly marked these people as the first people to be on their Death Note - the profits to be made there are TOO high, and its a no-brainer for blockchain to disrupt that market.

A very big point to note. Very very big. And this is important, so listen up. Investing in startups is risky. Period. With or without cryptocurrencies. The risk profile of a startup company is still very big either way, though I admit that there are pros and cons to each method that helps reduces risk in certain areas.

But the point is that even before cryptocurrency was a word, both the RISKS and REWARDS in startup funding are beyond comprehension for normal people.

So this "ICO bubble" that we are seeing here, to me it is just what happens if you allow the general public to take part in such high risk investments. Deals that would have previously be made behind the scenes (and probably with unfavourable terms to the startup) and now out in the open for anyone to fund.

Sure, the quality of the projects are dropping, the quantity of projects are increasing and the amount that they are asking for are increasing too. Who is to blame them? The market is signalling their intentions to be involved in more risky ventures.

Now that pandora's box has been opened, why would a startup choose to take VC money that has strings attached, when they can take the general public's money and retain much more control?

I think this is a good thing. People CAN invest in ICOs if they want to, but they should be willing to assume all the risks (and rewards) associated with such an investment.

Personally, the thing I'm peeved most about is regulations. Anyone that steps foot into the crypto space immediately denounces any form of recourse - there is none in the crypto world. It should go immediately without saying that touching an ICO is like the biggest risk you can take, and no amount of government regulations can save your ass if you made bad decisions.

Long story short - while ICOs might seem like digital IPOs, I think they are much riskier due to (1) the complicated and non-standard process of investing in it and (2) the much earlier start point of business development, which invariably leads to a much higher fail rate. Of course, that also means that the returns can be phenomenal.

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

First Crypto Cash Out


Slightly over a month ago, I bought a certain crypto (I will not name it).

Today, I decided to sell some of it.... at a +446% gain.

I won't give you a dollar figure (obviously), but I can assure you that the profit is in the thousands, NOT in hundreds.

Actually, I don't mind revealing a slight ballpark figure, but I will not elaborate further. The profit from this single trade, which is only a portion of my total tokens in that crypto (<10%), which is in turn only a portion my entire crypto portfolio (<25%), is almost the same as the entire profit of my SGX portfolio, which I have been carefully and slowly investing since Mar 2014. You could argue that I'm a shit stock picker, therefore my stock returns are low, but I don't think my stocks returns are that bad. The STI was 3.08 when I started and it's 3.34 today + dividends along the way. By my calculations, I've outperformed the STI by a solid 7% in total returns.

So, the returns of <2.5% of my crypto porfolio in less than 2 months is about the same as the return of my entire SGX portfolio for the last 3 years.

And it would clearly be more if compared to a simple portfolio of only the STI ETF.

And mind you, this is without any leverage at all.

--------------------------------------------

Again, you can take this post that GMGH has lost his marbles, forsaken traditional investing, has balls of steel and is now posting his returns from a good gambling run at a casino. What a douche. A lucky douche, but a douche nonetheless.

Or you can take it that cryptos have mindblowing potential and that people with SOME sort of investing experience and knowledge actually have an edge over all these self proclaimed crypto gurus, and can reasonably make very respectable profits in the crypto space.

I'm not telling you to jump into this. I'm just showing you what is possible.

Seriously, this isn't a shill. This isn't a sell. I don't even want to tell you what crypto it is that I bought and sold. Later you say I only say so that others can pump it while I dump it on them and cash out, no thank you.

It's up to you to decide what you want to do. And this is just me rambling on about stuff on my blog.

The big question of the day: What am I going to do with my profits?
Answer: Plow it right back into another crypto.

Wish me luck, it looks like financial freedom has just jumped forward 20 years earlier for me.

Oh, would you look at the time. I'm due for my medication now. Excuse me.

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Don't Crybaby To Me About Bitcoins & Cryptos

The market bubble popped a while ago and went from 120b to 60b.

Now we're back above 120b. If you were in ANYTHING at that point of time, your portfolio would've been up about 100%.

I am currently up over 100%.

That statement is not meant to be a brag, but a fact verified by me that such intense gains are not just imaginary, they are possible.

(I have to point out that I am expecting another correction again. But hey, the crypto markets are volatile and random af, if you're getting into this you should already know the risks involved)

Screw bonds. I've liquidated all my Singapore Savings Bonds and I have put 100% of that capital into cryptos. Insane? Madness? Maybe.

Screw the stock market. I'll be liquidating large chunks of my stock portfolio too. At least 20-30% will be liquidated by the end of the month if things go as planned.

A lot of people cannot grasp the fact that 0.01% of the population that hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins and whatnot are getting and will be insanely rich.

Isn't it unfair? The wealth distribution gap is so wide!


My response: So what?

I am going to be insanely wealthy and fabulous because I put in real, spendable SGD and bought these online digital funny money that could be worthless the second after the SGD leaves my bank account. I took this risk. You didn't.

Let that sink in.

I gave away real money today for something that is extremely risky and could be worthless tomorrow.

What should my risk/reward be? It should be freaking high since normal people wouldn't even want to spend $1 on such things. They don't want to be involved in it. They don't want to know about it. Heck, I'm sure a lot of people would just want it to go away.

If Bitcoins goes to zero, who is going to refund me and pay me back? Nobody.
If Bitcoins go to the tens of thousands, who is going to get rich af? Me.

I take the risk, I reap the rewards.
You didn't take the risk, you don't reap the rewards.

Don't think of it as a loss to you and a gain to me. Just think of it as a missed opportunity.

If you want to sit on the fence, that is totally okay. I don't blame you. I was sitting on the fence looking over at Bitcoin and other cryptos occasionally over the past few years until I reached the point where I decided to jump the fence.

Now at this juncture, I have put real money in this thing. To me, it's real and it's the future. I see no signs of development in this area slowing down.

HUGEEEEEEEEEE RISKS. Very huge. I'm risking 100% of the capital that I put in. Could it go to zero? Yes. Will it? I'm betting thousands of dollars that it won't.

I have to reiterate it again - I'm taking huge risks, therefore I will be reaping huge rewards if it is successful.

You can use your SGD to save in the bank, invest in the stock market, buy new and shiny gadgets and eat delicious food. You are NOT taking the risks that I am, why should you be rewarded what I get?

Anyone who throws a bitchfit about cryptos being unfairly distributed ought to ask themselves this:

what the f*** is stopping you from getting in now?

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing

I know a lot of people are curious about "investing in" cryptocurrencies like "the bitcoins" and whatnot, but this is NOT a post about that.

This is instead going to be an introductory post about a group of blackbox investments that I will be doing.

Why is it blackbox? What does that mean?

It's a blackbox because:
- I will not be proving my investment capital
- I will not be naming the actual investments
- I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
- I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

That means that I only will be listing down the amount of my capital invested, some arbitrary name to call the investment and the returns of those investments.

As far as you, the reader, are concerned, GMGH just put some capital into this blackbox and at the end of the month he shakes it out, counts it, records it, then puts it back in for another month.


Due to the nature of cryptos, I will not be answering most questions about my blackbox investing.

In my blackbox, I have a wide variety of funds within, each invested with a different strategy. To mask the names of the actual investments, I have given them all interesting names - easy for me to identify, yet mysterious but still intuitive enough for readers.

Steady Turtle Fund
Black Wolf Fund 1
Black Wolf Fund 2
Black Wolf Fund 3
Green Angry Kraken Fund 1
Green Angry Kraken Fund 2
Blue Crazy Dragon Fund
White Crazy Dragon Fund

As of now, only half of my funds are up and running, but I am hoping to have them all up and running by the end of Aug so I that I can officially start reporting monthly stats with all the funds running once 1st Sep comes. However, if I am unable to get into my investments at that point of time, I will just release the stats with those unfunded funds being dormant until they start running. I'd prefer nice monthly stats, but I've realized that a lot of capital will be moving in and around, so as much as I'd like to keep things simple and neat, I will not be doing that and forfeit potentially better returns by not re-balanacing and re-allocating my portfolio.

Right now my focus will be on getting into positions and to come up with a good tracking spreadsheet for me to track my portfolio returns, and also to create the censored version that I will be publishing every month, as long as it is profitable and it is of interest to people.

What kind of returns am I hoping for and expecting? Honestly, that is a hard question to answer. 

As this is cryptos, a lot of my invest profit/loss would actually come from "foreign exchange", since the crypto/SGD rate is in a constant flux. I cannot even begin to predict that, but it is in my view that foreign exchange will be a tailwind to the blackbox's profts.

However, in terms of crypto itself, I am looking at a wide possible range of returns, somewhere between 10% - 50%. My estimates are actually somewhere in the 30% range, but I think a conservative target is 20%.

Anyway, this is like asking a fund manager at the start of the year to predict his year end returns. Who knows, right?

As always, I would like to warn people who are not familiar with crypto that there are a lot of risks involved in crypto investing. Even all the investments in my blackbox are full of risks too. However, I am totally prepared for a 100% loss in my entire portfolio. Crypto is risky and dangerous, tread lightly and at your own risk.

Sunday, August 6, 2017

GMGH's Crypto Toolkit v1.0

Dear all,

With cryptos becoming more and more popular (I'm seeing even more and more sheep joining the herd, marching towards the slaughterhouse shouting "MOON MOON"), I thought that perhaps it would be of interest to some people to know what tools I use and if maybe they could be of use to you.

Since this is v1.0 and there are plenty of old tools being discontinued, and new tools and websites popping up, this might not be the most cutting edge list of tools out there. I have to emphasize that although I use all these tools myself, I am not perfect and right, so you also need to do your own due diligence when using these things!!!

Okay, let's get started!

1. Password Manager

Are you surprised that this is the first thing on the list? You shouldn't be, especially if you have made a few wallets and accounts. Every wallet has a public and private key which you need to know, and some wallets have a mnemonic phrase.

A password manager is infinitely useful for safely storing all this information. I use Dashlane (my referral link for 6 months free premium) to store all my login credentials to all the different exchanges and websites that I visit. I also use it to store all my keys and backup phrases.

Coinhako. Coinbase. Bittrex. Poloniex. Wallet 1. Wallet 2. Wallet 3. Etc, etc. You get the picture.

You don't have to use Dashlane if you don't want to. I use it because after much research and reviewing, I have determined that it was the best one at that point of time, and since then I have had only great things to say about it. You can use LastPass, 1Password, or even locally stored programmes like Keepass, which stores and encrypts your password databases directly on your computer or thumbdrive.


You can use Excel, Word or even Notepad, but I personally strongly recommend against doing that.

The benefit of having a cloud-based password manager is that your data is by default backed-up and accessible without your specific hardware. This means that if your house burns down along with your computer, safe and thumbdrive, you can still log-in via the web client, or even better yet (and more secure), you can download the programme onto a new trusted device and get back access to all your accounts and passwords. All your coins, safe and sound.

There is a reason why this is the first and probably the most stressed about tool. YOU NEED IT. If there's only one thing to take away from this entire post is that a password manager is essential in this day and age where we have hundreds of online accounts, and each password SHOULD be different, but yet we are somehow supposed to remember each and every one of them? Just like how handphones have removed the need to remember phone numbers, password managers have removed the need to remember passwords.

2. Wallets

Now that you've got a safe place to store your wallet keys, let's talk about wallets. I think Jackson Palmer (creator of Dogecoin) nailed it with this episode, but I think the order is a bit mixed.



Personally, I use a variety of wallets.

Exchange wallets are a definite no-go for anything more than just trading in and out, followed by sweeping it clean. OG clients require an every growing amount of space, so I don't really like it.

*NOTE* If you have stored your private keys and recovery phrase into your password manager, technically your account is not as secure compared to private key only being found on the paper wallet or hardware wallet. Private keys getting leaked out are the BIGGEST risk and you should be extremely aware of what method you choose and why. If you have a hardware wallet, I'd suggest keeping a backup of the recovery seeds it in case you lose or break your hardware wallet so the funds can be recovered by key regeneration. Also never ever digitally key in or record your private key else unless you are burning that account and migrating away to a new one.

Personally, between 1, 1.5 and 2, I don't see much difference for the security of the user. However, it is definitely better to have a full node and not rely on other nodes. However, that is with regards to security of making transactions, NOT with the security of your funds. This is a very important distinction. Not being connected to a full node does not increase your risks of your funds being stolen. The certainty that you can broadcast transactions and verify blocks yourself comes at the cost of having the entire blockchain on your harddrive, and constantly growing.

While paper wallets are great, I find them a major, major inconvenience. A better way to use paper wallets is to pair it up with a watch-only wallet (also applicable to hardware wallets!). This means you don't have to dig out your paper wallet to receive coins, you can fire up your watch-only wallet to generate your public key to receive funds. However, you do have to dig out the paper wallet if you ever want to send coins out though. As such, it's best to think of paper wallets like a piggy bank. Easy to deposit into, but troublesome to get the money out.

BTC watch-only wallet: Sentinel
ETH watch-only wallet: Lunary

I don't think I can go wrong by saying that I think hardware wallets are superior to paper wallets, though there are specific cases when a paper wallet would actually be pretty good.

3. Fiat-Crypto Exchange

In Singapore, the most commonly used exchange is probably CoinHako. I have a referral link, but meh, I personally think Hako is shit and I have a conscience, so sorry, no free $5 through signing up from me. You may ask your friends who also have no fiduciary obligation to you to recommend you to Hako. The margins and spreads are fat AF (I've seen conversion rates with premiums as high as 9%) and their exchange fee is a freaking 0.9%, lol. Actually instead of lol, it is more WTF. As much as I think Hako is pretty shit, I have to admit that they do offer a simple, easy-to-fund, easy-to-use platform with pretty decent support. It's a beginner's platform where they pretty much hold your hands the whole way. I guess that's what you're paying for? Expect final SGD cost over USD spot rates to be as high as 10%.

The next most common platform is Coinbase, which has actually been around for a while and it is also one of the biggest retail consumer exchanges. I use Coinbase because I find their rates very similar to the market, although their fees are high and flat. On the bright side, fees can be mitigated because they do allow you to charge purchases on your credit card. In my experience, the all-in fees ends up to be about 4.5%, so it depends on how you want to shuffle around your credit card purchases and which card you want to charge it to. I think it's a pretty good way to chalk up spending on your credit cards, especially if the bonus interest applied on your bank balance would more than offset the fees of Coinbase. Expect final SGD cost over USD spot rates to be as high as 4.5%, though credit card promos and rebates can drop that significantly HINT HINT.

Personally, I use the DBS/POSB + Gemini combination. It sounds complicated, but it really isn't. You just use SGD to remit USD to your Gemini account. Tadah. Done. The only fees in this equation is the SGD-USD conversion rate which I've calculate to be about 0.65%, and the exchange fee at Gemini for 0.25%. For a no-bullshit experience with this combo, you can expect a very good and reliable exchange with final SGD cost over USD spot rates to be just under 1%.

If you are going to buy buying large amounts of crypto on a regular basis, it's a no-brainer which option you should choose. I currently use DBS/POSB + Gemini for my bulk purchases and Coinbase for my impulse purchases. Please do your own diligence for these exchanges. These are just what I use, and as you know, the biggest risk and easiest point of failure (other than yourself) would be the exchanges.

Other known fiat-crypto exchanges are Kraken (I have an account but I do not use it) and Quoine (I have NOT used before, but I know they have SGD pairs. There seems to be no market depth though).

4. Crypto-Crypto Exchanges

This is probably the big question everyone wants to know about, eh? Especially since buying just plain ol' BTC and ETH is so boring and passe.

The main exchange that I use for changing cryptos is Bittrex. I feel that Bittrex offers plenty of pairs and has a very simple and non-confusing user interface. Withdrawals and deposits have always been smooth for me and I've not experienced any issues. They handled the BTC/BCC forking fiasco perfectly as well, so in my view, they are the best exchange out there.

My next most used exchange is Changelly (yes, I have an affiliate link there) and I use it to change crypto when the amount is either small, or if speed is a factor. Changelly is similar to the more popular Shapeshift (no registration needed exchange), but Changelly has more pairs, lower fees, better rates and more uptime. No registration is the real shining plus point here, so for those people who came into crypto because of privacy concerns, this point ought to win you over. Just as a casual mention, Moneroj is a supported coin on Changelly.

As much as I like Shapeshift (and their innovations like Prism), I find Shapeshift to be rather unreliable with rates always worse than Changelly... if you can get them to quote you. It doesn't bring much user confidence that half the time I can't even get them to quote me a rate. However, still a pretty decent option. It's okay to have a Plan C even if you already have Plan A and Plan B.

5. Portfolio tracking Spreadsheet

This can be done in a variety of ways, but I imagine most people will settle for the plain ol' Excel or a Google Spreadsheet. Personally, I use the Google Spreadsheet option because I can access it on multiple devices.

While prices can be linked, I personally prefer my spreadsheet to be completely static with only inputs from me, and formulas that I create.

I have 2 main spreadsheets:
- SGD to crypto purchases (capital cost)
- Summary of all cryptos (market value)

Essentially, the main thing that I am concerned about is what is the value of my portfolio compared to the capital I invested. Having the first spreadsheet allow me to know when, where and what crypto I bought and at what rate (capital) and the next spreadsheet allows me to find out what is the market price of the cryptos that I am holding (market value).

This document isn't really top secret, because there is no need for you to put down your account information. Even if this document is leaked, your accounts are not compromised as long as you never wrote down your private keys. That said, if you understand how blockchain works, with your balances, people would be able to search for your account on the blockchain and would be able to link that public address to your own person. It is generally never a good idea to let people know your holdings.

6. Crypto prices

This is a split between coinmarketcap.com and coincap.io.

Coincap.io seems to have a more accurate price. The prices are also periodically refreshed on the page, so you don't need to constantly refresh the page to get the latest prices. It also has the 24 Hour VWAP, which is a nice little metric if you know how to use it.

Coinmarketcap has it's own benefits too, and the main one is definitely the price graph chart. I love seeing the small 7 day price performance chart that it provides, and it takes but a glance to figure out how the market has been doing lately. Coinmarketcap also allows you to go deeper in each crypto and see bigger chart, but most importantly, to see the exchanges that the crypto is listed on and the last price and volume at those exchanges.

7. Misc

This is just a collection of stuff which I think could be useful.

Bitcoin Checker (Android widget app for live prices)
Blockfolio (App to check prices, can insert portfolio)
Cryptowat.ch (Best web charts INCLUDING MARKET DEPTH for the major cryptos)
Ether Gas Station (Best way to find out current Gas prices for ETH transactions)
Bitcoinfees.21.co (Best way to find out about BTC Tx prices)

Conclusion

Honestly, cryptos are in their very early stages. Yes, STILL. There are no guide books and no one is going to hold your hand and walk you through the entire process. While the whole scene may be overhyped as of now (and I do think it is), I am sure that the market has much much much more to grow over the coming years.

If you're dipping your toes into cryptos, please stay safe and be secure.

There are no laws, no rules, no police and above all, nobody that cares about you in the crypto world.

Stay safe out there. It really is the wild wild west.

If you don't know what you're doing, I strongly strongly recommend for you to NOT get involved.