Sunday, December 10, 2017

I'm back from my break! Bitcoin Futures thoughts

It was a short break, just a week, but I managed to get a lot of things done! I hope that I got quite a bit of my life organized now and that the rest of 2017 and 2018 would be quite smooth sailing for me!

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Lol when I left BTC was at $11,000 and it felt kind of giddy to me.

Now we're sitting around $15,000, but not before peaking at $17,000 - $20,000 depending on which exchange you are taking the price reference from.

Now that $11,000 is starting to look CHEAP, haha.

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One of the things that pulled me back from my blog break is regarding the release of Bitcoin futures, which I believe starts tomorrow.

If I was super rich, I would have been buying up tons of actual BTC over multiple exchanges for the past week(s) or so leading into futures trading. It would help me with 2 things: (1) accumulating actual BTCs and (2) pumping up the price.

Why would I want to accumulate BTCs? Well, it's so that I can open short positions on BTC on the futures, and then dump the actual BTCs across exchanges to drive the price down.

Why would I want to pump the price going into futures trading? I would want the price to be screaming OVERBOUGHT on pretty much every single technical indicator that I can think off, so when I dump BTCs, it would seem not only rational that it is happening, but also convince people that price is overbought and would be heading lower. This would lead to a cascading effect that would lower price even more.

And a lower price leads to more profit on my futures short.

Anyway, that's just how I would do it, but let's see if anyone actually does do that.

On the flip side, that is actually the obvious playbook. Almost too obvious that I don't think it would actually happen. Or maybe I am really thinking just the right amount of steps in front of everybody.

A lot, a lot of pent up demand is waiting for futures so that they can get exposure into crypto. How the price action pans out will determine how quickly crypto futures for other assets start arriving, and how it would affect the prices of those cryptos.

Needless to say, BTC benefiting positively from futures would be huge for other top cryptos like ETH and LTC and would pump both their prices while accelerating the time it takes for them to get their own futures.

TIn my opinion, the best playbook would be just neutral going into the BTC futures, then just position yourself correctly when ETH futures finally come along. I can honestly see it going either way.

But gun to my head if I had to make a decision - my gut tells me that BTC would be sold into futures trading and we would have an obvious, but very brief period of huge whale accumulation taking up their initial long positions, before they finally release the downwards pressure and let it skyrocket with them now comfortably on board.

But hey, who knows what is gonna happen? I'm a simple man with a small monkey brain.

Price go up, I clap.
Price go down, I buy.

See, life can be easy.

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Things to do by year end:

Post giving week update
Tidy up and publish A LOT of my drafts on crypto (before they get updated!)
Do a post with a list of my favourite 2017 crypto posts
Prepare to expose myself by sharing my crypto profits (!!!)

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Blog Break

Just fyi that I'm taking a break from blogging for a while.

No, the crypto markets aren't crashing and I'm not running away to hide my face.
Au contraire, the crypto markets is back (to business as usual) to pushing ATHs.
It will crash. But it will also continue going up. That's just the nature of a new paradigm.
It's a bubble? Guess I'd ride it up another 1000% and cash out then.

My crypto portfolio is exploding like you wouldn't believe it. It's absolutely disgusting. I'm thinking of sharing my performance at the end of the year. I'm not sure if I should share % gains or absolute profit. I don't want to share both, because then you guys can reverse engineer my capital, which I am shy about. I'm leaning towards % gains because it's a more generic number, but the absolute profit in $ value is also eye watering. I'm not sure if it would be responsible to shill my profits like that. A lot of greedy people would be tempted to rush in.... and that will boost my returns? Hmmm... it seems like a moral hazard problem that I have here. Luckily, I don't have much morales, ahaha! What do you guys think? % gains or absolute $ profit? Let me know which one and why, and maybe you'll get to see what you want to see!

Anyway, lately there has been a lot of things on my plate to handle, and I have not been handling them very well.

While I enjoy blogging and penning down my thoughts, pumping out content now is not something that I want to do. I know I have no obligation to churn out content, but I feel a bit stressed out about it sometimes.

If I put blogging away to one side for now, I hope I can sort out all my other things and get back to blogging once my life is more organized.

Anyway, my main message to all readers: Crypto is dangerous. 90% are plain shit, scams, frauds and ponzis. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Nothing is for certain. Temper your greed. If you don't know what you are doing, don't do it. No one is going to cry for anyone that lost money in cryptos.

You have been warned.

I don't know when I'll be back to blogging. Maybe a week. A month. Maybe more.

We'll see.

Good luck and stay safe.

Friday, December 1, 2017

#GivingWeek 2017: GMGH Annual Charity Donation

It's that time of year again.


#GivingWeek is a national movement that encourages people to give back. I like how it is at the end of every year and near the festive seasons. It's a good time to take stock of how your life and the year went, count your blessings (and accounts) and see if you have anything spare to give to others.

I feel particularly blessed this year for discovering and learning about cryptos. I have advanced my retirement by multiple years. I am eagerly looking forward to 2020, because there is serious likelihood that I will be financially independent and able to retire by then.

Cash donations have a tax incentive of 250%, and it will stay this way until at least 2018. You can of course choose to donate to registered charities that are not approved IPCs, but you will not get any tax deductions. I donate to IPCs because they are held to a higher standard for regulatory compliance and governance, it's easy for me to find the list of IPCs and what's more beautiful than a win-win situation for all?

I will be making my donations via the giving.sg website.

Similar to what I did last year (2016) and the year before (2015), I plan to donate all my blog advertisement earnings to charity, as well as match it one-for-one and top up to round up the final donation amount.

The amount of AdSense earnings that I have this year is: $218.01
Add my personal donation of matching it one-for-one is: $436.02
Rounding the amount up to the nearest $10 for easy contribution is: $440

I'll definitely be doing a follow up post as usual.

Although this is what I personally do, I don't expect other people to do the same. I think that it is very important to have a philosophy and reasons behind why you do something. I'm going to share (re-post) my thoughts from last year, updated with some very minor edits. I still think it's one of my greatest literary works yet.

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Having money isn't a crime to the society

One of the few ires about being an Asian financial blogger is swimming against the tide of taboo that is embedded in our culture, which is that money shouldn't be talked about openly. However, since financial bloggers implicitly do so, apparently it is suddenly okay for observers to tell us what we should do or should not do with our money.

There is a certain notion that people who like to talk about finance are capitalist pigs with no hearts. All we apparently think about is how we can amass more fortune by allegedly screwing over other people. Apparently, we are also ungrateful for the society that we live in that have enabled us to be financially successful. Those who are successful and on the top could have only got there by stepping on other people along the way. Since we are so focused on becoming millionaires, we need to pinch and save ever penny that we can get our hands on and we don't have any human decency to spare a thought for the less fortunate or those in need.

Sure, you can think that, but I don't believe so. That seems to be more like the logic of a sour person who is frustrated with their own lives instead, especially if they keep on making comparisons to others. Everything is everybody else's fault and they are just perfect. Pfft. They are just projecting their own problems onto other people.

Karma and "Fairness"

I have friends from different religious backgrounds and I also have friends who do not follow any religion. However, quite universally between my friends who are religious and those who are not, they all seem believe in a simplified version Karma, which is "Good things happen to good people, bad things happen to bad people", or "What goes around, comes around".

I know this might come to a shock to most people, but I do not believe in Karma. I don't think that anybody is keeping score and hatching a devious plan to "balance" out the bad, or even reward the good. It is a great way to encourage more positive social behaviour, but I just don't see how that works in any sort of semi-practical way (I admit, it could be argued that it is much too complicated for my feeble mind to understand). In fact, after learning more about philosophy of life, I would quite firmly place myself as existentialist which accepts the absurd and is striving to live life authentically and without bad faith. (all philosophical ideas that I would encourage anyone brave enough to put their entire understanding of the meaning of life up to the test to read up on)

However, that doesn't mean I don't appreciate or understand Karma. It is a great way of thinking. One of the things that I do believe in is that people should treat other people the way they would hope to be treated. The notable difference here is that just because I treat other people nicely, it does not mean that I myself would be treated nicely by others. It's a two-street and I only control one direction.

Is life "fair"? Obviously it is not, and I don't think it can ever be fair. Whether we should strive for fairness is a different debate altogether.

Capitalism and Meritocracy

My non-belief of Karma and my support of capitalism and meritocracy surely conflicts with the idea of charity then, does it not? Surely someone that thinks there is no such thing as divine retribution and also thinks that what people have got is somehow a culmination of what they deserve can't possibly care about others, right?

I believe that individuals or groups of private owners (capitalism) is the best form of economic system that we have so far because the rewards that it offers (money) is a pretty effective motivational tool for most people. The capitalist system also allows socialism to exist in pockets within its ecosystem, but not the other way around. The best example that I can think of are not-for-profit (different from non-profit) co-op credit unions that provides services to their members, such as easier loan approvals at lower interest rates. (FYI, I am a member of a co-op and there are many co-ops in Singapore, but that's a different story for a different day.)

To me, meritocracy seems like something that follows after a system of capitalism has been established. When there is a sense of ownership over assets, which people will then accordingly maintain and look after, it allows meritocracy to thrive. People now have ownership over their own skills and time. Between two people with similar skills, the one who clocks in more hours will get the better reward. Between two people clocking in the same hours, the one who has superior skills will get better rewarded. This isn't rocket science and I think this is pretty much the closest we can get to a universal agreement about the concept of fairness (but like I said, life ISN'T fair). Rewarding people who cultivate and improve their skills and are willing to spend more hours working to produce a final product - be it a good or service - is a good way to motivate them to continue their good performance, and also offers peers a glimpse of what their futures could be. Meritocracy would not exist without capitalism, because people would not be recognized for the different levels of skill and time committed.

I believe that the "skilled and hardworking" should be rewarded the most. This is different from being "skilled" or being "hardworking". Working 12 hours a day on a farm sure is a bitch and it is hard work, but try convincing anyone that a farmer should earn more money than a doctor (not talking about drug farmers). Yes, I took the 2 extremes, but that is just to make the point clear. Hard work counts for nothing if you're not applying that hard work well. Hard work is extremely overrated. I wish people would stop saying, "if you work hard, anything is possible" because it clearly isn't. If you have a smart plan and have realistic steps and actually work to complete those steps (note: no mention of hard work), you can achieve your goals. "Hard work" is too simplistic of a concept. It propagates the fallacy that all you need to do to achieve your dreams is to do it more times. Harder. Faster. Sheer insanity.


Being such a cynic and, so far up to now, heartless, how is it possible for charity to reasonably exist without conflicting with everything else that I support and believe in?

Fitting in the concept of Charity to help those who cannot help themselves

Firstly, let's acknowledge one thing. In a capitalist system, poor people DO exist. In fact, in any economic system there will always be some people who are poor and some people who are rich. The existence of a lower class is not proof of a flawed economic system, because show me a system where there isn't any distinction? Show me a system where poverty doesn't exist. Or at least justify your stance why poor people should not exist!

I believe that we were all dealt difference cards in life to begin with. To think that a son of a billionaire and the average person have the same opportunities and privileges in life is naive. Of course the son of a billionaire is starting the race way ahead of everybody else. Born in a rich family? Great, put in half the effort and get the same outcome. Born into a poor family? Unfortunately, you need to work twice as hard to get the same outcome. Ain't nobody said that life was going to be fair.

However, the world that we live in now isn't so unforgiving and harsh as that and I think that's a good thing. I believe that people who are handicapped just because of the luck of the draw should not be penalized and have no social mobility. Many governments are already "equalizing" the playing field to their own perceived notion of what is "fair" and what is not. I don't necessarily think that this is a bad thing. If the system is already stacked against them to fail before they even start, that to me is not something that I would like to see in the society that I live in. People should be able to determine to at least some degree to how they want their lives to pan out, rather than it already being predisposed from birth. But I'm also not saying that anyone can be Bill Gates.

Personal obligation to give to Charity

With many of my readers below the age of 40, giving to charity is a very confusing thought. Almost nobody is prepared for retirement yet. There are bills to pay, family to look after and raise. How can money be spent on others when there isn't enough for yourself yet? That's a great question. If you can't afford it, don't give to charity. Nobody is forcing you to give to charity, especially if you don't have enough for yourself. Look after yourself first.

However, the next question is... how much is enough that you feel comfortable parting away with some of the excess? After you buy a car? After scrapping the Japanese car for a continental one? Buying a second car? Upgraded to a condo? 2nd property? Overseas property in Malaysia / Thailand? And then London? How much stuff and money do you need so that you are comfortable to give some excess to charity? If the answer is that it is never enough, perhaps now might be a good time to realistically think about what it is in life that drives you and what do you what to achieve in life. If not having a yacht and the latest Apple gadgets makes you unhappy, you have way bigger problems in life then "Should I give to charity?".

Perhaps I have come to this conclusion rather early in life, but I figured out how to be happy, what I want in life to be happy, how to create happiness from different outcomes, what steps I need to complete to work my way there and I'm doing it. Since I'm a hedonist, all that works out great for me. I'm not just talking about doing it, I am actually doing it. With the ground already broken and I can see the work in progress being done, I'm quite confident that I know how things would end up for me. Sure, nothing in the future is confirmed, but I give myself pretty good probability that I'm going to end up in a comfortable situation. And that means that I will have some excess that I can afford to part with.

It's hard to say whether in the future as I become more successful, my lifestyle would also accordingly move up and my "needs" gets upgraded along the way. Personally, I hope it doesn't, but there really isn't anything wrong if it does. You've got the money in the bank, you want to buy a Rolex watch and that would make you happy? Go do it. I'm not advocating a lifestyle of selling all your worldly possessions and living simply and in the rough. I'm not advocating any lifestyle at all. I'm just verbalizing why my views on how seemingly conflicting topics can exist is a framework harmoniously.

As long as you can answer the question, "How much is enough?", you would be in a good position to examine your current status to see if you are suitable to donate to charities. If you know how much is enough, and you don't have enough yet, don't worry about it, next time maybe. If you don't know how much is enough, by default, it is never enough. But that's just my thinking about it.

Conclusion

I should wrap up my thoughts because what I wrote is a rather big web of ideas that are all over the place. I think that if you want to be happy, you need to look at yourself, not other people. If giving to charity makes you happy, give to charity. If giving to charity makes you miserable, don't give to charity. The tough part is figuring out if you'll actually be happy or unhappy!

Just like my non-Karmic belief that I cannot control how other people treat me, but I can only control how I treat others, I believe that all you can do is be the change that you wish to see in the world. Whether or not that change does eventually come about, that is beyond our control. But it is a bit comforting knowing that you at least did something instead of nothing.



Wednesday, November 29, 2017

LOL BITCOIN $11,111


Holy moly.

Went from $10,000 to $11,000 in just 12 hours.

This is getting giddy.

Can't say that I'm not happy about it though, LOL.

Bitcoin $10,000




Non-believers be like:


Crypto holders be like:


GMGH be like:


(btw, btc broke above a resistance on the LOG scale, this shit is getting cray, lol)

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Bitcoin is in a BUBBLE?!?!

Do you own any bitcoins?


Do you know how to buy any bitcoins?


Do you know anyone that owns any bitcoins?


Do you know anyone that has invested more than "play money" into bitcoin?


Are you planning on buying any bitcoins?


Do any of the people that call bitcoin a bubble: have any, used any or know how it works?


So bitcoin is in a bubble?
Please, tell me more.


(It's easy for me to be this cocky with crypto pushing all time highs. But then again, it has been doing so all year, and I believe it will continue doing so for quite a while.

To be fair, I am expecting a correction in the crypto space soon, but its because of profit taking and whale fighting in preparation for futures, NOT from a "bubble" bursting.)

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Worst ICO Picks for 2018

When it comes to picking bad ICOs, the best way to do so is to follow a list, like the one written by Inc. Lol. Seriously, if you guys bought based on a list by some website, you deserve to lose your money.

1. Cypherium
2. Rentberry
3. Loci
4. Trippki
5. RightMesh
6. Experty
7. NAU
8. Coinlancer
9. FansUnite
10. Giftz

As someone that is almost 24/7 plugged into the pulse of the crypto world, I have heard of NONE of these ICOs until I opened up the article.

Good gawd.

People flipping ICOs, beware: the good golden days of buying trash and dumping it on the exchanges at a profit are long gone.

Recent blowout ICOs?

Too many to count.

Confido
Monetha
Agrello
Tierion
Bancor
Status
Trueflip
.
.
.
and the list goes on and on and on.

MOST crypto projects WILL fail.

Good luck if you want to play, but no one will cry over your corpse if you get pwned.

Caveat emptor.

Saturday, November 25, 2017

Saturday Humour: Socialism is the fix!


I saw this post and just wanted to share it, because I'm sure it'll trigger some people.

I realized that my distaste for socialism is natural - there are no Austrian socialists.

It's like looking for a vegan wearing a fur coat.
It's like looking for a non-smoker with cigarettes on hand.
It's like looking for a bitcoin maximalist that owns lots of bcash.

It just doesn't happen because of extreme ideological conflicts.

2017 has been an interesting year of enlightenment for me.

2018 is lined up for a lot more things for me to continue on learning and improving, and one of the smaller goals is to do much more reading about Austrian economics. A good start would be to find the time to revisit one of my favourite books, "Why Not Capitalism".

Sometimes I wonder if I'm too fringe. Then I realize, it doesn't really matter, as long as I'm happy, haha!

Friday, November 24, 2017

You and Your Fiat Money


And people somehow think that I'M the crazy one.

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Calling out Motley Fool's "Bitcoin Expensive To Keep Safe" BULLSHIT

This article gave me cancer.

Cute disclaimer of "If you're not technologically inclined....".


Q: How much does it cost to store bitcoin safely?
A: Between $0 to $110.

How? A free paper wallet.

Doesn't feel safe that it's on a piece of paper?

Encrypt it with a BIP39 passphrase.
Laminate it.
Make a copy.

Not good enough?

How about $100 for one that is made out of metal, which is fireproof, waterproof and shockproof?

Not user friendly enough?

How about $110 for hardware wallet that you can just plug into your computer?

Not to mention the multitude of options for software wallets for both your computer and handphone that you can download for FREE.

Not to mention multi-sig options as well.

Recap:
$0 - Paper wallet
$0 - Handphone Software wallet
$0 - Computer Software wallet
$100 - Actual Hard wallet
$110 - Hardware wallet

I'm legit annoyed by this bullshit. 

Now, do you want to get real cancer?

You can buy their "Crypto Edge" guide for $249.


AND GUESS WHAT? THEY WILL TEACH YOU HOW TO STORE CRYPTO IN THEIR GUIDE!

I WONDER IF THE METHOD THAT THEY TEACH IS GOING TO COST 15 TIMES MORE THAN GOLD. HMMMM.

Dafuq.


Jeez.

I guess whatever sells their "guide", right?

Cancer.
Pure Cancer.
Stage 5 Cancer.

Here's to calling out bullshit, especially for the people that should know better.


Keeping it real,

GMGH

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Overstock CEO Gets Bitcoin. Do You?

Here's the article. It comes with a nice 11 minute video interview too as well. Just gonna pull out my favourite bits from the article, because I'm lazy to transcribe (the video is better than the article itself though).



You think that’s a bubble? What do you think that fiat currency you carry around in your purse is?

It’s about time the world switches to real money. Either gold or bitcoin.

The real question is not how high can bitcoin go. The real question is how low can fiat currency go—and at the end of the day all fiat currencies have gone to zero and that’s because they end up with irresponsible money printing.



We have all these currencies since Bretton Woods, fluctuating against each other, and maybe the dollar hasn’t gone to zero against these currencies but all of them have gone down 95% ... versus something that they can’t control like … gold and bitcoin. So bitcoin may be on its way to a million for all we know.


Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Calling it the "Tether Top"

3 hours 20 minutes after my warning about Tether this morning, this happened:


Reddit version here.

Which led to this:


Though this announcement isn't exactly the level of implosion I was expecting, it smells and reeks of a cover up. A "hack" is very reminiscent of the Mt Gox story. As a reminder, Bitfinex got "hacked" in August 2016 and lost 120,000 BTCs. That was valued at $72m back then, but it's worth a whooping $960m now.

I was hoping for something bigger. Like Bitfinex freezing all BTC withdrawals and halting all USDT pairs, or something of that level. Would be nice if Bitconnect can implode together too, drain the swamp in 1 shot. But I guess that's another fantasy for another day.

Anyway the days are long and crypto days pass by even faster. I can totally see the situation getting worse in the near term.

As per my previous post, I advise the following:

1. Do not use Bitfinex.
2. Do not hold any Tethers. If you do, exchange them for something else.
3. Do not keep ANY funds on any exchanges that has USDT parings - they may suffer collateral damage.
4. Familiarize yourself with escape routes - cashing out / stable coins.

Although this doesn't prove that Tethers are worthless, I would say the red flags are everywhere. Proceed with extreme caution.

The BIGGEST risk in cryptos right now

It's not government regulations. (China failed)

It's not a mining revolt. (BCH and B2X failed)

It's not for being called a ponzi, fraud or a scam. (DBS CIO whateva his name is, Dimon, Buffet, etc etc etc)


It is the $600M USD giant white elephant in the middle of the entire freaking room named Tether.

Tether is a crypto representation of 1 USD stored in a Taiwanese bank account. Supposedly. There has been no audit on their assets.

Tether is NOT claimable for actual USD. Their website does not allow you to exchange Tethers for USD.

Tether started out 2017 as a $10M problem. It is now a $674M problem, and growing.

If you do want to know more about this whole Tether conspiracy (it's looking more and more like the obvious reality though), check out this Twitter account and all of his tweets to learn more.

How are Tethers created? Beats me.
How are Tethers redeemed? I have never come across anyone that has actually redeemed it.
Have people tried to redeem Tethers? Yes, many, but no one has successfully done so.

It is extremely likely that these supposedly backed and redeemable coins are actually, in fact, NOT backed by USD and also NOT redeemable for USD.

Whether Bitfinex and Tether blow up today or tomorrow or never, it's anyone's guess.

If crypto has a stablecoin that has enough cross pairs for people to trade into BEFORE the blow-up, I think crypto world will not be rocked so hard.

If crypto does not have a stablecoin, I think we can see a pretty nasty bear market til the death count can be accurately accounted for.

Stablecoin projects like Maker's Sai / Dai and DigixDAO's DGX cannot be needed any sooner.

What am I doing to mitigate the risks?
- No more usage of Bitfinex
- Avoid Tethers like the plague
- Quick trades and cleans sweep of exchange accounts with USDT pairs
- Familiarize and set-up myself to be ready to make use of crypto stablecoins when they launch

I have no idea how it ends, but I think the evidence is clearly pointing that a blow up is inevitable.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

19 Nov 2017 Crypto Thoughts

Just gonna plop out some mental crap that has been clogging up my brain's mempool for a while. Hope anyone picking my thoughts can pick up something interesting.

Bitcoin is a trustless, uncenorable way to transfer payment information and balances.
Ethereum is a trustless, uncenorable way to transfer all types of information, INCLUDING payment information and balances.

Monero is what normal people think Bitcoin is.
Monero is what shady people that use Bitcoin need to actually use instead.

Banning cryptocurrencies because it can be used for money laundering is like banning the internet because terrorists can send each other emails.

People used horses for thousands of years, until the car.
People used paper money for hundreds of years, until cryptocurrency.

Tokens that are securities are one of the easiest and best use cases of blockchain.
Securities (shares, bonds, etc) WILL be tokenized and will be legal.

Token holders may NOT have any legal recourse NOW, but that WILL change with the tokenization and securitization of everything.

Classifying all different types of tokens as the same thing is like classifying all modes of transport as the same thing. Cars and donkeys are different, much like many types of tokens are different from each other.

Once there are clear legal frameworks for tokenized securities, the majority of tokens will be clear-cut, straight-up crypto versions of shares trading on stock markets now. (profit sharing + voting)

Project Ubin mentioned blockchaining bonds and settling payments - clear and straight forward use case.

95% of all crypto will end up being *close to* worthless. Blockchains don't die easily, but their value and usage do.

Market cap is a very very fragile metric. Give me a few thousand dollars and I can move the market cap of some coins by several million dollars.

People betting on alts hoping for it to become the "next Ethereum" are smoking some crazy shit.
Same as the people betting on alts hoping for it to become the "next Bitcoin".
Bitcoin and Ethereum already exists, why do you need the "next" one?
(For clarification, I am referring to overall development and community, not price speculation. There is obviously more profit percentage-wise to be made gambling on small alts.)

Many traders are looking only at upsides and ignore the downsides.

Many traders have never even used or sent crypto on its blockchain - they have only traded it on centralized exchanges

Many traders are going to end up holding extremely heavy bags of quickly becoming worthless alts, using Noble logic - "it has dropped so low, it can't possibly get any lower, can it?".

Many utility-only tokens will end up being worthless.

Many of those projects MUST screw over their token investors and choose to accept ETH as payment in order to survive.

Or else they must partner up with someone that can offer services along the likes of Kyber to instantly accept ETH from users and get it converted to their utility tokens to be used natively. Either way, the value of those utility tokens will be very much muted due to there being no intrinsic value of holding the tokens, since it would be preferable to just purchase the required tokens on the spot, as per demand and usage dictates.

Proof of Stake will likely be the new "proof" model of the future.

That said, Proof of Work will not die easily.

It makes much more sense in 95% of scenarios to just buy the coin instead of mining the coin.

Ethereum's success will be determined by how it reacts to new and objectively more technologically advanced blockchains, and retain and incentivize developer talents, and general adoption of its blockchain (both public and private).

If Ethereum can manage to fend of newer blockchains until sharding goes live successfully, they would have won the decentralized application race for the foreseeable short term future.

Proof of Stake + Sharding will create MASSIVE global FOMO of "investing" in crypto-currencies and could be one of the things that fuels real, mainstream adoption and gets widespread usage.

Cryptocurrencies will spark a "renaissance", where the new generation questions the need, trust, reliability of all 3rd party institutions and roles in both commerce and society. Corruption will be highly scrutinized.

Adoption of crypto will also spark the general public demanding that central banks and government run monetary policy better as parallels with unlimited fiat money vs deflationary cryptos are drawn and understood.

Mass adoption is still extremely far away.
Most people have only heard of Bitcoin. Almost none can name more than 3 other cryptos.
Of those that own cryptos, many are only lightly invested, "testing" out the market.
Of those that own and trade cryptos, many don't even know what their crypto is used for, other than speculation on price.
Institutional money has almost no legitimate way to get exposure into this new "asset class".
General public understanding of crypto is close to zero.
General public WANTING to understand crypto is even closer to zero.

We are STILL in the early adoption phase.
Prices WILL flop around like a fish on land.
People who are now owning the 5% of crypto that survives the next several years of culling, will be the new class of wealthy.

These are just my views on cryptos at this point of time. Lots of things can change on a dime, and I am learning new things every single day.

Crypto life, best life.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Project Ubin Phase 2: MAS and 11 Banks working on Crypto, I shit you not

There will always be disbelievers, but I am not fazed.

Here is the MAS media release regarding open sourcing the Project Ubin Phase 2 findings, and here is the full PDF report.

MAS even has a page for Project Ubin.

Anyway, here are 2 screenshots of things I wanted to point out:



Page 52: "Future phases of Proj Ubin could focus on a decentralized bonds payments system, which could be supported by MAS and the participant banks with execution driven by SGX. This could delivery a more efficient fixed income securities trading and settlement cycle through DLT."

Didn't I say that securities are one of the lowest hanging fruits, along with value transfers?

Questions? What is DLT? Answered here, along with why a national currency will never be issued on a public blockchain, but more likely on a private blockchain compatible with public chain communication.

What's the price of Ethereum today? $328 USD
Last week? $310 USD
Ooo, 1 week 6% gains.

Anyway, I'm already in. I don't need to be sold.

I'm just fanning the flames of FOMO for everyone else.

But sure, continue thinking it's a fraud and a bubble. I don't make any money convincing people to read and learn more about all of this.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Warning: Browser Mining Experimentation

Dear all,

I would like to announce that I am experimenting with browser mining.

What is browser mining?

Well, when you surf around my blog, a "miner" will use up a fraction of your computer's computing power to help calculate some operations.

No worries, I have limited the mining to only 2 threads and only 30%, so if you're running a decent computer, you shouldn't even notice it!

Our course, I am mining cryptocurrency.

For those curious, I am mining Monero (XMR), which is one of the few cryptocurrencies that can still be mined using regular computers, without a huge handicap compared to specialized mining machines or expensive graphic cards. Monero is one of the few cryptocurrencies which I am very bullish about.

It's just a fun experiment for me to try out.

Leave me comments if you notice that the site is laggy when you are browsing and I'll try and tweak some settings.

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Crypto 11.11 Thoughts

Just a week ago, I wrote a post regarding the Alt-mageddon that was happening at the time - BTC was heading higher into the fork and alt coins were languishing badly. My final conclusion? Alts were cheap, and they should be bought, rather than chasing BTC at all time highs.

One week on, and what do we get? A perfect bottom call, hehe.


Just a sample of 4 of the alts that are quite popular: OMG, PAY, LTC and ETH.

At that point of time, BTC was at 6,800 and now we are back at 6,800 again. I did say "...BTC can easily blow past $7,000 and hit maybe 8k..." and we actually did go all the way up to $7,950.

The call-off of the fork is both a good thing and a bad thing.

Current crypto traders would now all be leaving BTC to go into extremely cheap and depressed alts at extremely oversold levels.

However, at the same time, fresh money (mostly from private hedge funds) that have never bought crypto before and had been waiting for weeks due to the fork uncertainty finally have the "all-clear" sign that the BTC community would not be fractured. This means that the big money would be coming into BTC.

I did mention that big money can ONLY flow into BTC, maybe some ETH and a minimal amount into LTC and an extremely insignificant amount into small alts. Most of them don't have the mandate to go into anything other than these, and even if they do, the markets aren't big enough to absorb big orders yet. Big traditional money is unfortunately still locked out of alts.

Unlike traditional markets where the HFTs run the show, in crypto it is still the whales and liquidity that makes or breaks a market. If I was a whale, which money would be easier to eat? Crypto investors moving into alts at all time lows, or fresh meat jumping onto the BTC wagon?

My take is that the easy money is killing the new BTC boys who are coming in with old rules for old assets. There are no traditional markets with the volatility of cryptos, and that is what you would use to shake out all these people from their positions. Huge spikes on either side will kill off positions by traditional traders, and that is what we saw. Post-fork, there was a BTC 4H candle that had a range of 12%, lol.


That's one way to kill new traders and make a ton of money, haha.

There's also the BCash conspiracy about taking over BTC and whatever. I actually would like to see an attack on BTC to see how resilient it actually is. But this BCH thing feels more like a massive pump and dump, rather than a realistic takeover scenario.

Moving forward, I expect BTC to head lower and shake out a lot of the new people that came in post-7000. I'm prepared to go in at 6200, 5500 and I'll prepare the kitchen sink for 4800. The way that the BTC market is progressing, a 40% drop is like a complete market catastrophe and probably a good drawdown level to consider entering hard - at least, I would be. Hence, the 4800 kitchen sink level.

Of course, BTC could just continue blowing up again. Really, who knows? BTC has been a dip buyer's dream come true, and I honestly suspect that it will stay that way for some time. Risk adverse entry points would be the RSI30 on the daily chart, which has proven to be exceptional entry points. More risky people can consider the same thing, but on the 4H charts.


I have bought on both those entry points, so my BTC purchases are currently in heavy profits.

What about the rest of the market? Ethereum has been grinding the 300 range for the longest time. I'm inclined to believe that the 300 resistance level has actually turned into support now. However, if BTC does get toyed around with, you can be assured that most of the alt markets will drop as well. However, considering the fundamentals of ETH moving forward, I am pretty bullish and I try to aim my accummulation around the 300 levels.

IF, and that's a big if, a few major dapps release on the ETH ecosystem over the next few months, I think that ETH would likely break away from mirroring BTC's up and down days and will instead, finally go off and do its own thing. I think that this is very possible, given the lineup of dapps reaching mainnet launch phase. Upcoming dapps to go live are as follows: Maker, Augur, DigixDao, Melonport and Kyber.

While the stupid money is chasing ICOs and playing chicken with ponzi coins and HYIPs, I believe that the smart position to be in is to wait in some of these extremely promising projects that currently have no hype because they aren't live yet.

For smaller alts, especially the ERC20 ones, I expect their prices to flop around like nobody's business until they hit/miss their own major milestones. For promising projects, a delay of a major milestone could be a great opportunity to accumulate on the negative sentiment, as long as you can strong confidence that they will eventually deliver and it would be good. 

However, I also do think that the cards are lined up that we could see an alt rally that lasts several months. This depends if BTC just generally trends lower, or would be called-off if BTC's price is killed.

Regardless, I feel it's unlikely for legitimate alts to go much lower from these levels.

My base case scenario is for BTC to trend lower and bounce around 6000-7000, for ETH to slowly trend up towards $360, and for the alts to all slowly but surely trend higher. That is the playbook I have right now. But considering how fast the market moves in crypto, I could change my positioning if the situation warrants it.

My advice for long-term crypto investors (3-5 year hold)? Don't buy shitcoins. Long-only strategy. No leverage. You might not make as much money as shitcoiners, but you have massively greater odds of not dying and still coming out good.

This is a pretty "technical" post, with a lot of numbers here and there, which means absolute mambo jambo to most people, but meh, this blog is also a place for me to think outloud.

There are plenty of fundamental reasons for crypto to continue going up and up and up in price, but that's not for this post today. I'm entirely convinced about the future of crypto, but I don't want people to think that there are no risks involved and buying and investing in them would make them rich. If you have problems looking at -2% positions on your stocks, you are gonna shit blood all over yourself when you see your portfolio drop 10%, in an hour. In crypto, scared money don't make money.

Stay safe in the wild wild west. The path to crypto glory is littered with dead bodies of noobs.

Friday, November 10, 2017

EXIT ALL OF THE STOCK MARKETS

It's a crypto meme, but I thought I'd just use it since I've gone full crypto-retard anyway, hue hue.

So I see that now at market ATHs, some markets are showing bad signs, especially with junk bonds leading the way, the usual leading indicator.

I seriously hope that these cracks really lead to what I've been waiting for. Yes, I am a financial asshole.

The stock market is a ridiculous shit show for the last few years that I had been forced to play with. I hated playing it, but there was no other game in town.... that I knew of.

Insane valuations for so many stupid companies. SNAP FREAKING CHAT? TWITTER? GO "CAMERA ON A STIK" PRO? I can't even. It's an insult to my intelligence. The whole US stock market is an entire joke.

Bitcoin is a bubble? Please, look at the damn US stock market and tell me that it ISN'T in a bubble.

Ever since I discovered crypto and realized that I actually have LESS risk with MORE reward in crypto compared to the stock markets, I put my money where my mouth is at and I exited almost all of my stocks, unit trusts and bonds.

And of course, like the brazen young fool that I am, I plowed it all into crypto, and I've no regrets so far.

My past few months of investing in crypto has SIGNIFICANTLY more returns than the rest of my investing career. It's sounds crazy, because it is crazy.

Sure, it could all go poof because it's just magical internet money backed by nothing, right? Lol. 90% of you guys STILL don't get what crypto is, and that's okay. By the time the majority of people finally do get it, or roughly understand it enough to know that its legitimate enough to buy into, I'll already be a full-fledged millionaire. I'm confident by the time I'm 35, easy peasy. It sounds ridiculous even saying things like this, but really you have no idea how freely the money flows in crypto land.

I know so many of my friends who are bankers, yet ALL of them have zero clue about cryptos. It's not that they aren't smart. These people are probably the smartest people I've ever met. It is that they have never even bothered to give it a serious look with all the tulip-bubble mainstream media shit talking.

Don't get me wrong. I don't want people flooding into cryptos without knowing what they are doing. However, what I do want to change is the perception that cryptos are poofy worthless unbacked internet magic money. It saddens me when I hear very intelligent friends I know just write off the whole thing as tulip-bubbles.

Anyway, whatever. I eat the cake I bake. And you don't eat the cake that you don't bake. If cryptos crash, so be it. It's not like I don't know that this is the risk of going into cryptos. But in this short span of a few months, I've already been through 40-80% crashes more than 5 times already. And if you guys know me, you also know that I have freaking big balls of steel and damn stronk (not a typo) hands. I have to attribute my dip buying and holding skills to investing in gold for all these years.

The future for cryptos keeps looking brighter and brighter, and my portfolio along with it.

You guys can never say that I had a good thing that I didn't share.

But seriously, the stock market is looking toppy af. I'd short the shit out of it if I didn't have crypto.

CALLING THE TOP BECAUSE GUESS WHAT? I SOLD ALL MY STOCKS HAH!

Good luck with stocks guys. If you are looking for something less risky (but more volatile) with strong fundamentals, please consider learning more about crypto, lol.

Okay enough trolling. Good night for now.

Monday, November 6, 2017

Gold vs Digital Gold (Bitcoin) Part 2


As a following up from my previous post regarding gold vs bitcoin. Also, the same tweet as the past post.

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Gold vs Digital Gold (Bitcoin)

As someone who has physically owned precious metals for years, I think I am in a pretty good position to talk about precious metals as an investment compared to 95% of other investors who have never touched it before, or only own it through chance / luck through some ETF or unit trust holding.


Also, as someone that owns his own private key on the Bitcoin blockchain and has more than 1 BTC, and have actually made multiple transactions using the blockchain, I also think I am in a pretty good position to talk about Bitcoins compared to 99.8% of people who have never owned a Bitcoin, and probably more than the entire new wave of "investors" who own bitcoins but have actually never used it or made a transaction before.


When I first came across and learnt about bitcoins in 2013, I dismissed it as magical worthless internet money. Even back then, it was frequently compared to gold. The problem about bitcoins back then was that there was no infrastructure and it was all so underground and technical. It was not an easy or friendly thing to get into either.

Now in 2017, after seeing how much the underlying technology has developed and expanded (Ethereum), bitcoin is still going on strong as the world's first truly international, censor-proof and opt-in banking and payment network system.

Bitcoin has legal status in a few countries. Laws and regulations have been passed to consider it a currency, or at least not to regulate or ban it. There are decent levels of merchant adoption, which is growing, along with payment acceptance services for it.

Gold though, largely has its historical record and permanence that grounds its value as a store of wealth. All games in the world use "Gold" at the premier in game currency and even little children can tell you that gold is money. There is something intuitive knowing that you need to grab a pickaxe and head to the mines to get out a mine piece of gold that makes it worth so much.


Bitcoin mining is frequently compared to gold mining and incorrectly (personal opinion) equate that the time and energy exchanged in mining is the base cost of bitcoin. I find this argument extremely weak. Why? If the total bitcoin network was at 1 old desktop sitting in a basement instead of the hundred of thousand of specialized bitcoin mining computers in huge farms across the globe, it STILL produces the same amount of bitcoin. Adding MORE hash rate to mine bitcoin is extremely different from opening several new mines and hiring more miners - you actually get a total output increase in the gold scenario, while the bitcoin scenario yields no increase in output.


Anyway, I think that's a pretty important difference regarding actual gold mining and bitcoin "mining".

The marginal cost of new gold supply is literally the mine with the lowest mining cost. The marginal cost of new bitcoin is.... erm time? Sure, the actual formula has difficulty adjustments every 2016 blocks and stuff like that, but really, more hashing does not equal more bitcoins, which is why I only like to loosely compare bitcoin mining to real mining.

The more important relationship is actually regarding supply. Both gold and bitcoin has a fixed supply. The theoretical maximum supply is the most important thing regarding both gold and bitcoin.

It is important to know that what you own can NEVER EVER be faked, or simply "created" into existence. This makes what you have as a unique piece in this entire set of objects. You can't just print or create more into existence because it'd make the existing things in existence worth less.


And this is exactly the reason why fiat money dies every single iteration of the thousands of iterations that it has tried. As long as the money supply is not fixed, you WILL get bad actors and they WILL f*** things up. All currency dies from hyper inflation. There are no natural exceptions. This has happened in every country, every time. If it hasn't happened to your currency (yet), ask yourself this: what was the currency BEFORE this one? What happened to it? Unless you got "Euro-ed" (probably one of the notable few exceptions in the world), the answer is that your previous currency died due to hyper-inflation.

Fiat currencies dying through hyper-inflation is like people dying from old age. That's just the way it is.

Gold and bitcoin removes the power of anyone to do so by creating (1) a maximum supply and (2) a method to prove the authenticity of the thing in question. In gold, it is through testing. In bitcoin, it is through cryptographic proofs.

While many people, myself included, love the feeling of touching, feeling and holding your precious metals, it is arguably extremely hard to spend, transport and even sell if it eventually comes to it.

Bitcoin on the other hand has no need for transport, can be easily spent without any government or bank being able to stop the payment, and sells extremely easily. Perhaps it's main drawback is that currently fees to transact in bitcoins aren't as cheap as it used to be, and takes a while to complete a transaction (minimum 10 minutes) - 2 things that bitcoin is aiming to fix with its future upgrades.

It's been hard for me to admit it, but I've finally come to terms with it. I do feel that cryptos are likely the way forward, especially in the modern world where having a lump of gold in your safe means close to jackshit, but having access to bitcoins means you have instantly spendable wealth.


To precious metals investors, I'm definitely not saying that precious metals are useless and worthless. But I think that they really need to be evaluated in today's context, especially for their utility.

One very, very interesting crypto-gold project that I am looking at that actually marries the ideas of BOTH crypto and precious metals is DigixDAO. I don't want to say too much because it'll look like its a freaking advertorial for them and obviously I'm not being paid to say any of this. Plus, I care squat if you guys buy it. Buying crypto suggested from an anonymous stranger is no different than going into vans for candy. Anyway, it's a crypto that I own and I support, and it is going to do something pretty interesting with crypto and gold. Their project is in the final stages and I hope that next year I can happily sing praises about it and talk about it more when they actually have a product to talk about. For now, it's just a nifty idea that the curious can go exploring themselves.

I officially own more cryptos than I have precious metals. I have not sold off any precious metals yet, but I can't say that I have not been tempted to, to buy more cryptos.

Thursday, November 2, 2017

My Current Thoughts on the Alt-mageddon

BTC is breaking new all time highs.

Again.

Honestly, it's really chugging along as expected. BTC at $10,000 or even $20,000 really isn't mind blowing for me. I'm just a bit surprised that it is reaching these levels a lot quicker than I anticipated, and also not dragging up the rest of the alt-coin market with it.

Alt-coins are getting thrashed right now. I think it is generally the newbie FOMO of BTC going up with the fork, and everyone is trying to get their "free" forked coins.

Which is silly, since people were selling BTG (the last fork) for 2% gains, while booking 10-30% losses on alts to get that.

The market is really divided into big and small players now. The big players unfortunately can only buy BTC, and perhaps maybe some of the other top market cap coins, but I think for the most part, they have been deploying more and more money into BTC, hence the meteoric recent rise.

While this itself shouldn't cause the alts to crash, it is because of the smaller traders going for the free forked coins narrative.

I personally view this as alt-coins being extremely well-priced now, as people are just fire-selling their alts to get more BTC going into the fork. No big money can get into alts easily - the market volume is thin, and frankly, most of them barely can grasp BTC, they are going to have a hard time analysing the alt markets.

Am I going to chase BTC? No, I won't. I am going to continue buying cheap and depressed alts, especially the ones that I have very high confidence of recovering in the medium term (3-6 months) when they release major fundamental news regarding their projects.

While BTC can easily blow past $7,000 and hit maybe 8k or even 10k while alts bleed, my concern is not my daily average profit. My concern is the profit on the day I cash out, which will be years ahead in the future.

I strongly believe in the technology, community and therefore, long term fundamentals and price of Ethereum moving forward. I also know that Proof of Stake is going to be MASSIVE for Ethereum. My regret in the future will be not hoarding enough ETH when proof of stake goes live.

I have 1 last alt bag to fill up, then I'm gunning for just accummulating ETH, regardless of whatever other opportunities appear. I've been a bit distracted by alts lately, but the opportunities have really been so tasty and hard to ignore. Although I might kick myself for going into alts instead of holding ETH now in the short run, I think it is far more likely that my bets on alts at these prices are going to pay off very handsomely in a few months, and those profits are going to help me get even more ETH!

Anyway, this is just some rambling on my thoughts about the current BTC-alt markets. As with all my investments, I buy low to sell high. Alts are cheap and low now, and I'm buying into them.

As always, if you don't know crypto, it's better to watch and learn, than to play and get burned.

Monday, October 30, 2017

Terminology Clarifications: Blockchain, Distributed Ledgers, Bitcoin and more

I have to admit that I am not the most technical person in the world. I don't know any programming languages and the maximum extent of my computing prowess ended with building my own computer.

However, as I learn and study more about crypto, one of the issues that always crops up is the people referring to WRONG definitions, and therefore their argument is literally wrong, though usually the idea that they are trying to convey is clear if you are willing to give a lot of leeway in the meaning of the specific words.

So anyway, let's get down to business.

Ledger = Database = Record / Table of information

"Ledger technology" is not freaking modern crypto magic. Cavemen wrote ledgers to record how many sheep their neighbours owed them. Ledgers are nothing new. Everyone knows how to make and read a ledger, and everyone has multiple ledgers of different things.

Ledgers are really no different from databases. It is just a set of recorded data. Nothing special, nothing unique.

"Distributed Ledger Technology" (DLT)

Distributed Ledger Technology is also NOT blockchain. A lot of people equate DLT to block. DLT IS NOT BLOCKCHAIN. Nothing about blocks and chains here.

Distributed ledgers is a technological improvement, but a very specific one - multiple copies of a ledger are updated independently.

The main benefit? You have redundancy, which means that taking down or manipulating a single copy of the ledger is futile, because there are still multiple copies of the "real" ledger available, and they continue updating to the "true" picture.

Blockchain

This is the term that confuses people a lot and gets wrongly used the most.

A blockchain is simply a chain of blocks. Every new block is able to PROVE that it is linked to the block before it, and that block and prove the link to the block before it, and so on.

This means that a chain can prove that all transactions from the start of its existence until now complies with a certain set of rules and that the data flow and update of changes is uni-directional - only happening in the future.

This is extremely important, because this means all previous transactions are set in stone and can never be manipulated. Changing any transaction, such as editing the value, changing the destination or even removing the transaction, would be detectable and future blocks will recognize that a change has occurred - and will reject that change.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin uses both blockchain AND distributed ledger technology to record down transfer of payments.

This is why bitcoin "technology" and is so powerful. It merges 2 very important technologies together.

No previous transaction can ever be changed - it is final.
Any tampering will the previous transactions will be rejected - manipulation is not possible.
Multiple copies of the ledger makes it impossible to manipulate all the ledgers.

Summary

I still get slightly annoyed when people discuss technicalities but still fumble with public blockchains (bitcoin, ethereum), private blockchains, public and private databases, distributed ledgers, tokens and currency.

Just to be clear, because some people have freaking ridiculous notions of what is possible and impossible - no large / serious nation that understands blockchain will ever issue their own national currency on a public blockchain. Never.

Someone may be appointed to act as custodian or facilitate the private-public cross-chain swap, but it would never be fully on a public blockchain.

Most likely a government would reserve themselves the ability to pre-mine and generate as many tokens as they want, and they would then issue those digital fiat equivalents with a 1:1 ratio with actual circulating currency. As mentioned, anyone that wants to trade such currency of a public blockchain would require a cross-chain swap, or a custodian to facilitate the issuance / guarantee of the tokens convertibility. Of course, if a government body is appointed to do this, it can be low/no cost because it would be non-profit or even subsidized. However, a private body could do this as well and charge a service for it. However, trustless cross-chain swaps between public and private chains could solve this in the near future, so I think there would be no third party required.

Looking at the state of things and how quickly things are being developed, I honestly would not be surprised to see a digital fiat equivalent (DFE) issued by a country within the next few years, even if it is initially not widely used.

Friday, October 27, 2017

What If I Had Invested In Bitcoin For The Past 7 Years

I'm sorry Mr 15HWW, I just saw your posts on the STI and Berkshire and I just had to do this, ehehe!

BTC price data is pulled from here, and I just followed his format, with additional columns for my calculations.

Assumptions:

1. SGD is converted to USD to purchase BTC

2. Transaction Fees include conversion, remittance, deposit fees, large spreads and slippage

3. Initial Fees are a WHOOPING 30%, due to what I think was a very illiquid market initially

4. I gradually adjust fees to be lower to take into account the better market infrastructure

5. My final number of 5% for transaction fees is STILL ridiculously high. I am paying closer to 1% now.

6. I got Gox-ed (lost all my bitcoins during the Mt Gox hacking of Q1 2014)

With those very very heavy penalties (getting Goxed) and conservative assumptions (super expensive fees), here are the results:


The pink highlights are the bitcoins that would have been lost because of the exchange hacking.

So, with $350,000 being deployed every quarter with $12,500, the portfolio would have ended at $2,148,954. If my math isn't wrong, with only about half the time (Q2 2014 onwards), my IRR would have been 51%.

If I hadn't lost my BTCs in the Mt Gox hacking incident (I think most people did though..), the portfolio final value would instead be $315,962,750. If I didn't get Gox-ed and safely kept my BTCs throughout the years, my IRR would have been 252%.

My math regarding the IRR might be wrong though. I'm not really bothering too much. Just know that the returns would have been YUUUGGEEE.

Of course, in retrospect it is easy to see what would have been the best way to have invested in the market.

Anyone crazy and brave enough to have bought huge amounts of bitcoins in the early days when the technology was still developing and still unstable, should and have been handsomely rewarded for taking such risks with something that could very well be nothing. In my opinion, those bitcoin millionaires all deserve it.

Sometimes I wish I had the balls, foresight and understanding to have invested heavily into crypto years ago. I was playing around with mining bitcoins in 2013, but my conclusion was that if its ONLY use is a digital store of value, it is not going to work out. The paradigm shift that blockchain tech is not necessarily only just for money (bitcoin as money is an extremely narrow usage of blockchain technology) is what made me come back to the crypto space and convert myself to a strong believer after finding out more.

The true main point that I am trying to make here isn't that you should invest in bitcoins or other cryptos - NO, THIS IS NOT THE POINT I AM TRYING TO MAKE.

Instead, I think the better learning point here is that as long as you invest in fundamentally sound assets for the long term, you should be making decent returns.

I'm sure a lot of people are gonna be pissed reading this post.

Ponzi.
Bubble.
Fraud.

Magic internet money.


Lol.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

WTF are Smart Contracts and why "Bitcoin" will be huge

I'm always slightly annoyed by the ignorance that all cryptos are lumped together and labelled "bitcoins".

Bitcoin is the first application of distributed ledger technology (DLT) which uses blockchain technology and decentralized distribution principles.

Bitcoin is NOT blockchain.
Blockchain is NOT distributed ledgers.

Bitcoin also is not able to handle smart contracts natively (requires RSK or oracles if I am not wrong). But Ethereum can. There is a recent burst of development of oracles - both centralized and decentralized ones - and their interaction with smart contracts, which are giving rise to more and more ways for external data of state confirmation to enter the blockchain and execute smart contracts. This means that the execution clauses are getting more broad and more easy to coded for execution. And this is a huge leap forward technologically.

The infographic below is an EXTREMELY good primer on what are smart contracts and why they are useful, beneficial and valuable.

Maybe before you read the infographic, let me share this youtube video to show a real use-case application of smart contracts to give you an example for you to reference to:




Three quarters down there is a section called "Another level of complexity".

Bitcoin ONLY operates on the 1st and most basic level.
Ethereum currently operates from the 1st all the way to the 5th level.

The 6th level of DAOs are currently being developed and the first DAO should be launched sometime around the end of this year, or early 2018.

I've long believed that "middle men" will be put out of businesses just simply due to the progress of technology. The power and rise of blockchain makes me even more confident of that happening, and faster too. Property agents and insurance brokers are already slowly showing their way out of the door. Many roles, companies and even industries that rely on being a third party are going to be radically disrupted, to either the point of obsoletion, or be reduced to handle very niche circumstances.

One of the main reasons why I strongly believe that Ethereum will be significantly more valuable than Bitcoin is because of smart contracts, alongside decentralized applications and other decentralized ideas.

Whether I can convince you that the insane technological leaps of blockchain tech is a game changer or not, this train is already steaming full speed ahead. I'm on the train already. Waving at you.

Bye bye.

Monday, October 23, 2017

GMGH Crypto Blackbox Investing (Final)

As mentioned on 8 Aug, I have been doing something called Blackbox investing.

As a refresher what that is all about:
I will not be proving my investment capital
I will not be naming the actual investments
I will not be proving the returns from those invesments
I could make making up the entire thing and you wouldn't know

However, this will be the last update.

Why?

No, I am not losing money, hehe.

1) The bitcoin fork(s) are coming and I need to pull back my BTCs to manage the fork process
2) I am planning to inject more capital into my funds a
nd do some rebalancing

Both of this means that it would be hard for me to continue reporting.

Here are the final updates:


For the past few week, everything went along pretty well, except for an itchy hand mistake I made with my "Steady Turtle" fund. I had thought that BTC was going to bounce off resistance at $4800, so I hedged out my position. Within a few days, it had broke past $5000 and was surging like crazy! I got back in at $5300. That itchy mistake cost me 10% of lost! Overall, it is still up almost 50% in less than 3 months though.

In fact, all my funds have done well. They have all increased in both crypto and in SGD value.


As mentioned, I am not closing these funds. I am just temporarily shutting them down to deal with the BTC forking, after which I will shuffle around my capital and re-allocate.

My funds have been working out very well for me. If I had split my funds evenly, I would be up almost 100% over the past 3 months!

Profit from this blackbox investing experiment over for about the past 3 months? $8327.08 SGD


As mentioned in my last post, this is definitely not my entire portfolio.

I expect a lot of good developments to happen to crypto (especially my portfolio) over the next couple of months.

At the rate I am going, I'm leapfrogging ahead in "investment years" because of all these outsized returns that I am getting. Hopefully by mid 2018 I will be able to report big gains and be a bit more comfortable sharing values of my returns then.

For now, just enjoy my crypto posts from time to time! Remember, if you don't know what you are doing, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT BUY CRYPTO.