Sunday, December 10, 2017

I'm back from my break! Bitcoin Futures thoughts

It was a short break, just a week, but I managed to get a lot of things done! I hope that I got quite a bit of my life organized now and that the rest of 2017 and 2018 would be quite smooth sailing for me!

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Lol when I left BTC was at $11,000 and it felt kind of giddy to me.

Now we're sitting around $15,000, but not before peaking at $17,000 - $20,000 depending on which exchange you are taking the price reference from.

Now that $11,000 is starting to look CHEAP, haha.

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One of the things that pulled me back from my blog break is regarding the release of Bitcoin futures, which I believe starts tomorrow.

If I was super rich, I would have been buying up tons of actual BTC over multiple exchanges for the past week(s) or so leading into futures trading. It would help me with 2 things: (1) accumulating actual BTCs and (2) pumping up the price.

Why would I want to accumulate BTCs? Well, it's so that I can open short positions on BTC on the futures, and then dump the actual BTCs across exchanges to drive the price down.

Why would I want to pump the price going into futures trading? I would want the price to be screaming OVERBOUGHT on pretty much every single technical indicator that I can think off, so when I dump BTCs, it would seem not only rational that it is happening, but also convince people that price is overbought and would be heading lower. This would lead to a cascading effect that would lower price even more.

And a lower price leads to more profit on my futures short.

Anyway, that's just how I would do it, but let's see if anyone actually does do that.

On the flip side, that is actually the obvious playbook. Almost too obvious that I don't think it would actually happen. Or maybe I am really thinking just the right amount of steps in front of everybody.

A lot, a lot of pent up demand is waiting for futures so that they can get exposure into crypto. How the price action pans out will determine how quickly crypto futures for other assets start arriving, and how it would affect the prices of those cryptos.

Needless to say, BTC benefiting positively from futures would be huge for other top cryptos like ETH and LTC and would pump both their prices while accelerating the time it takes for them to get their own futures.

TIn my opinion, the best playbook would be just neutral going into the BTC futures, then just position yourself correctly when ETH futures finally come along. I can honestly see it going either way.

But gun to my head if I had to make a decision - my gut tells me that BTC would be sold into futures trading and we would have an obvious, but very brief period of huge whale accumulation taking up their initial long positions, before they finally release the downwards pressure and let it skyrocket with them now comfortably on board.

But hey, who knows what is gonna happen? I'm a simple man with a small monkey brain.

Price go up, I clap.
Price go down, I buy.

See, life can be easy.

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Things to do by year end:

Post giving week update
Tidy up and publish A LOT of my drafts on crypto (before they get updated!)
Do a post with a list of my favourite 2017 crypto posts
Prepare to expose myself by sharing my crypto profits (!!!)

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Blog Break

Just fyi that I'm taking a break from blogging for a while.

No, the crypto markets aren't crashing and I'm not running away to hide my face.
Au contraire, the crypto markets is back (to business as usual) to pushing ATHs.
It will crash. But it will also continue going up. That's just the nature of a new paradigm.
It's a bubble? Guess I'd ride it up another 1000% and cash out then.

My crypto portfolio is exploding like you wouldn't believe it. It's absolutely disgusting. I'm thinking of sharing my performance at the end of the year. I'm not sure if I should share % gains or absolute profit. I don't want to share both, because then you guys can reverse engineer my capital, which I am shy about. I'm leaning towards % gains because it's a more generic number, but the absolute profit in $ value is also eye watering. I'm not sure if it would be responsible to shill my profits like that. A lot of greedy people would be tempted to rush in.... and that will boost my returns? Hmmm... it seems like a moral hazard problem that I have here. Luckily, I don't have much morales, ahaha! What do you guys think? % gains or absolute $ profit? Let me know which one and why, and maybe you'll get to see what you want to see!

Anyway, lately there has been a lot of things on my plate to handle, and I have not been handling them very well.

While I enjoy blogging and penning down my thoughts, pumping out content now is not something that I want to do. I know I have no obligation to churn out content, but I feel a bit stressed out about it sometimes.

If I put blogging away to one side for now, I hope I can sort out all my other things and get back to blogging once my life is more organized.

Anyway, my main message to all readers: Crypto is dangerous. 90% are plain shit, scams, frauds and ponzis. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Nothing is for certain. Temper your greed. If you don't know what you are doing, don't do it. No one is going to cry for anyone that lost money in cryptos.

You have been warned.

I don't know when I'll be back to blogging. Maybe a week. A month. Maybe more.

We'll see.

Good luck and stay safe.

Friday, December 1, 2017

#GivingWeek 2017: GMGH Annual Charity Donation

It's that time of year again.


#GivingWeek is a national movement that encourages people to give back. I like how it is at the end of every year and near the festive seasons. It's a good time to take stock of how your life and the year went, count your blessings (and accounts) and see if you have anything spare to give to others.

I feel particularly blessed this year for discovering and learning about cryptos. I have advanced my retirement by multiple years. I am eagerly looking forward to 2020, because there is serious likelihood that I will be financially independent and able to retire by then.

Cash donations have a tax incentive of 250%, and it will stay this way until at least 2018. You can of course choose to donate to registered charities that are not approved IPCs, but you will not get any tax deductions. I donate to IPCs because they are held to a higher standard for regulatory compliance and governance, it's easy for me to find the list of IPCs and what's more beautiful than a win-win situation for all?

I will be making my donations via the giving.sg website.

Similar to what I did last year (2016) and the year before (2015), I plan to donate all my blog advertisement earnings to charity, as well as match it one-for-one and top up to round up the final donation amount.

The amount of AdSense earnings that I have this year is: $218.01
Add my personal donation of matching it one-for-one is: $436.02
Rounding the amount up to the nearest $10 for easy contribution is: $440

I'll definitely be doing a follow up post as usual.

Although this is what I personally do, I don't expect other people to do the same. I think that it is very important to have a philosophy and reasons behind why you do something. I'm going to share (re-post) my thoughts from last year, updated with some very minor edits. I still think it's one of my greatest literary works yet.

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Having money isn't a crime to the society

One of the few ires about being an Asian financial blogger is swimming against the tide of taboo that is embedded in our culture, which is that money shouldn't be talked about openly. However, since financial bloggers implicitly do so, apparently it is suddenly okay for observers to tell us what we should do or should not do with our money.

There is a certain notion that people who like to talk about finance are capitalist pigs with no hearts. All we apparently think about is how we can amass more fortune by allegedly screwing over other people. Apparently, we are also ungrateful for the society that we live in that have enabled us to be financially successful. Those who are successful and on the top could have only got there by stepping on other people along the way. Since we are so focused on becoming millionaires, we need to pinch and save ever penny that we can get our hands on and we don't have any human decency to spare a thought for the less fortunate or those in need.

Sure, you can think that, but I don't believe so. That seems to be more like the logic of a sour person who is frustrated with their own lives instead, especially if they keep on making comparisons to others. Everything is everybody else's fault and they are just perfect. Pfft. They are just projecting their own problems onto other people.

Karma and "Fairness"

I have friends from different religious backgrounds and I also have friends who do not follow any religion. However, quite universally between my friends who are religious and those who are not, they all seem believe in a simplified version Karma, which is "Good things happen to good people, bad things happen to bad people", or "What goes around, comes around".

I know this might come to a shock to most people, but I do not believe in Karma. I don't think that anybody is keeping score and hatching a devious plan to "balance" out the bad, or even reward the good. It is a great way to encourage more positive social behaviour, but I just don't see how that works in any sort of semi-practical way (I admit, it could be argued that it is much too complicated for my feeble mind to understand). In fact, after learning more about philosophy of life, I would quite firmly place myself as existentialist which accepts the absurd and is striving to live life authentically and without bad faith. (all philosophical ideas that I would encourage anyone brave enough to put their entire understanding of the meaning of life up to the test to read up on)

However, that doesn't mean I don't appreciate or understand Karma. It is a great way of thinking. One of the things that I do believe in is that people should treat other people the way they would hope to be treated. The notable difference here is that just because I treat other people nicely, it does not mean that I myself would be treated nicely by others. It's a two-street and I only control one direction.

Is life "fair"? Obviously it is not, and I don't think it can ever be fair. Whether we should strive for fairness is a different debate altogether.

Capitalism and Meritocracy

My non-belief of Karma and my support of capitalism and meritocracy surely conflicts with the idea of charity then, does it not? Surely someone that thinks there is no such thing as divine retribution and also thinks that what people have got is somehow a culmination of what they deserve can't possibly care about others, right?

I believe that individuals or groups of private owners (capitalism) is the best form of economic system that we have so far because the rewards that it offers (money) is a pretty effective motivational tool for most people. The capitalist system also allows socialism to exist in pockets within its ecosystem, but not the other way around. The best example that I can think of are not-for-profit (different from non-profit) co-op credit unions that provides services to their members, such as easier loan approvals at lower interest rates. (FYI, I am a member of a co-op and there are many co-ops in Singapore, but that's a different story for a different day.)

To me, meritocracy seems like something that follows after a system of capitalism has been established. When there is a sense of ownership over assets, which people will then accordingly maintain and look after, it allows meritocracy to thrive. People now have ownership over their own skills and time. Between two people with similar skills, the one who clocks in more hours will get the better reward. Between two people clocking in the same hours, the one who has superior skills will get better rewarded. This isn't rocket science and I think this is pretty much the closest we can get to a universal agreement about the concept of fairness (but like I said, life ISN'T fair). Rewarding people who cultivate and improve their skills and are willing to spend more hours working to produce a final product - be it a good or service - is a good way to motivate them to continue their good performance, and also offers peers a glimpse of what their futures could be. Meritocracy would not exist without capitalism, because people would not be recognized for the different levels of skill and time committed.

I believe that the "skilled and hardworking" should be rewarded the most. This is different from being "skilled" or being "hardworking". Working 12 hours a day on a farm sure is a bitch and it is hard work, but try convincing anyone that a farmer should earn more money than a doctor (not talking about drug farmers). Yes, I took the 2 extremes, but that is just to make the point clear. Hard work counts for nothing if you're not applying that hard work well. Hard work is extremely overrated. I wish people would stop saying, "if you work hard, anything is possible" because it clearly isn't. If you have a smart plan and have realistic steps and actually work to complete those steps (note: no mention of hard work), you can achieve your goals. "Hard work" is too simplistic of a concept. It propagates the fallacy that all you need to do to achieve your dreams is to do it more times. Harder. Faster. Sheer insanity.


Being such a cynic and, so far up to now, heartless, how is it possible for charity to reasonably exist without conflicting with everything else that I support and believe in?

Fitting in the concept of Charity to help those who cannot help themselves

Firstly, let's acknowledge one thing. In a capitalist system, poor people DO exist. In fact, in any economic system there will always be some people who are poor and some people who are rich. The existence of a lower class is not proof of a flawed economic system, because show me a system where there isn't any distinction? Show me a system where poverty doesn't exist. Or at least justify your stance why poor people should not exist!

I believe that we were all dealt difference cards in life to begin with. To think that a son of a billionaire and the average person have the same opportunities and privileges in life is naive. Of course the son of a billionaire is starting the race way ahead of everybody else. Born in a rich family? Great, put in half the effort and get the same outcome. Born into a poor family? Unfortunately, you need to work twice as hard to get the same outcome. Ain't nobody said that life was going to be fair.

However, the world that we live in now isn't so unforgiving and harsh as that and I think that's a good thing. I believe that people who are handicapped just because of the luck of the draw should not be penalized and have no social mobility. Many governments are already "equalizing" the playing field to their own perceived notion of what is "fair" and what is not. I don't necessarily think that this is a bad thing. If the system is already stacked against them to fail before they even start, that to me is not something that I would like to see in the society that I live in. People should be able to determine to at least some degree to how they want their lives to pan out, rather than it already being predisposed from birth. But I'm also not saying that anyone can be Bill Gates.

Personal obligation to give to Charity

With many of my readers below the age of 40, giving to charity is a very confusing thought. Almost nobody is prepared for retirement yet. There are bills to pay, family to look after and raise. How can money be spent on others when there isn't enough for yourself yet? That's a great question. If you can't afford it, don't give to charity. Nobody is forcing you to give to charity, especially if you don't have enough for yourself. Look after yourself first.

However, the next question is... how much is enough that you feel comfortable parting away with some of the excess? After you buy a car? After scrapping the Japanese car for a continental one? Buying a second car? Upgraded to a condo? 2nd property? Overseas property in Malaysia / Thailand? And then London? How much stuff and money do you need so that you are comfortable to give some excess to charity? If the answer is that it is never enough, perhaps now might be a good time to realistically think about what it is in life that drives you and what do you what to achieve in life. If not having a yacht and the latest Apple gadgets makes you unhappy, you have way bigger problems in life then "Should I give to charity?".

Perhaps I have come to this conclusion rather early in life, but I figured out how to be happy, what I want in life to be happy, how to create happiness from different outcomes, what steps I need to complete to work my way there and I'm doing it. Since I'm a hedonist, all that works out great for me. I'm not just talking about doing it, I am actually doing it. With the ground already broken and I can see the work in progress being done, I'm quite confident that I know how things would end up for me. Sure, nothing in the future is confirmed, but I give myself pretty good probability that I'm going to end up in a comfortable situation. And that means that I will have some excess that I can afford to part with.

It's hard to say whether in the future as I become more successful, my lifestyle would also accordingly move up and my "needs" gets upgraded along the way. Personally, I hope it doesn't, but there really isn't anything wrong if it does. You've got the money in the bank, you want to buy a Rolex watch and that would make you happy? Go do it. I'm not advocating a lifestyle of selling all your worldly possessions and living simply and in the rough. I'm not advocating any lifestyle at all. I'm just verbalizing why my views on how seemingly conflicting topics can exist is a framework harmoniously.

As long as you can answer the question, "How much is enough?", you would be in a good position to examine your current status to see if you are suitable to donate to charities. If you know how much is enough, and you don't have enough yet, don't worry about it, next time maybe. If you don't know how much is enough, by default, it is never enough. But that's just my thinking about it.

Conclusion

I should wrap up my thoughts because what I wrote is a rather big web of ideas that are all over the place. I think that if you want to be happy, you need to look at yourself, not other people. If giving to charity makes you happy, give to charity. If giving to charity makes you miserable, don't give to charity. The tough part is figuring out if you'll actually be happy or unhappy!

Just like my non-Karmic belief that I cannot control how other people treat me, but I can only control how I treat others, I believe that all you can do is be the change that you wish to see in the world. Whether or not that change does eventually come about, that is beyond our control. But it is a bit comforting knowing that you at least did something instead of nothing.



Wednesday, November 29, 2017

LOL BITCOIN $11,111


Holy moly.

Went from $10,000 to $11,000 in just 12 hours.

This is getting giddy.

Can't say that I'm not happy about it though, LOL.

Bitcoin $10,000




Non-believers be like:


Crypto holders be like:


GMGH be like:


(btw, btc broke above a resistance on the LOG scale, this shit is getting cray, lol)